Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Emley AFC vs Bamber Bridge

Team pages: Emley AFC · Bamber Bridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Emley AFC1.79

Bamber Bridge1.51

1X2

44% 24% 32%

Emley AFC Draw Bamber Bridge

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Emley AFC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Bamber Bridge 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emley AFC 1430 · Bamber Bridge 1421

	Emley AFC	Draw	Bamber Bridge
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emley AFC	Bamber Bridge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +2’	2.05	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	14	9	2	3	29	14	29
4	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
5	Curzon Ashton	15	9	1	5	29	18	28
6	Avro FC	15	9	1	5	37	28	28
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
10	Warrington Town	15	6	5	4	27	24	23
11	Bury	13	7	1	5	28	16	22
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
14	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
15	Emley AFC	16	4	5	7	17	28	17
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	15	3	5	7	18	20	14
19	Leek Town	15	3	5	7	30	33	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	15	2	6	7	20	26	12
22	Bamber Bridge	15	2	5	8	18	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emley AFC	Bamber Bridge
Alfreton Town	1-2 L	1-0 W
Stockton Town	3-1 W	2-5 L
FC United of Manchester	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gainsborough	1-2 L	1-1 D
Warrington Rylands	1-4 L	1-3 L
Workington	1-3 L	1-2 L
Warrington Town	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Bamber Bridge (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emley AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
24/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D

Bamber Bridge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
13/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
10/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	1	1	L
19/09	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
31/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
29/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	6	D
25/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emley AFC vs Bamber Bridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Emley AFC win (44%). Probabilities: Emley AFC 44%, draw 24%, Bamber Bridge 32%.

How many goals are expected in Emley AFC vs Bamber Bridge?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Emley AFC 1.79 · Bamber Bridge 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Emley AFC vs Bamber Bridge?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.