Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Curzon Ashton · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Curzon Ashton2.2

Ilkeston0.9

1X2

67% 19% 14%

Curzon Ashton Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWWWW

Ilkeston 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Curzon Ashton 3–1–0 Ilkeston (4 last)

Ilkeston0-1Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-0Ilkeston
Curzon Ashton4-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston1-1Curzon Ashton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1602 · Ilkeston 1398

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1602 vs 1398).
H2H favours Curzon Ashton: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/25/13%	0/75/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:44 +15’	1.33	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Curzon Ashton 3–1–0 Ilkeston

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 England FA Trophy	Ilkeston	0-1 HT 0-0	Curzon Ashton
02/05/15 England Northern Premier League	Curzon Ashton	1-0	Ilkeston
21/02/15 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Curzon Ashton	4-0	Ilkeston
30/08/14 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Ilkeston	1-1	Curzon Ashton

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Curzon Ashton	Ilkeston
Leek Town	2-1 W	2-3 L
Gainsborough	3-0 W	1-3 L
Warrington Rylands	1-5 L	0-1 L
Hyde Utd	2-0 W	1-0 W
Redcar Athletic	3-1 W	0-5 L
Lancaster City	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Curzon Ashton

WWWWLLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/11	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
27/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W

Ilkeston

LLLLLLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (67%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 67%, draw 19%, Ilkeston 14%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Curzon Ashton 2.2 · Ilkeston 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.