Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Redcar Athletic vs Bamber Bridge

Team pages: Redcar Athletic · Bamber Bridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Redcar Athletic2.46

Bamber Bridge1.07

1X2

67% 18% 14%

Redcar Athletic Draw Bamber Bridge

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Redcar Athletic 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Bamber Bridge 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redcar Athletic 1545 · Bamber Bridge 1410

	Redcar Athletic	Draw	Bamber Bridge
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redcar Athletic (rating 1545 vs 1410).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redcar Athletic	Bamber Bridge
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	0 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/0/43%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +4’	1.33	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Redcar Athletic	Bamber Bridge
Alfreton Town	3-1 W	1-0 W
Stockton Town	2-0 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Redcar Athletic (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Redcar Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	5	5	L
31/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-2	5	6	D
17/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
13/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
06/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
31/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Bamber Bridge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/11	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
31/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
13/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
10/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	1	1	L
19/09	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
31/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redcar Athletic vs Bamber Bridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redcar Athletic win (67%). Probabilities: Redcar Athletic 67%, draw 18%, Bamber Bridge 14%.

How many goals are expected in Redcar Athletic vs Bamber Bridge?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Redcar Athletic 2.46 · Bamber Bridge 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Redcar Athletic vs Bamber Bridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.