Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bury vs Cleethorpes Town

Team pages: Bury · Cleethorpes Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Bury1.78

Cleethorpes Town1.32

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Bury Draw Cleethorpes Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Cleethorpes Town 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury 1524 · Cleethorpes Town 1560

	Bury	Draw	Cleethorpes Town
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury	Cleethorpes Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.9	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +12’	1.85	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury	Cleethorpes Town
Avro FC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Workington	1-2 L	1-1 D
Hyde Utd	1-2 L	1-0 W
Lancaster City	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/11	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
31/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	3-0	5-3	7	5	W
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L

Cleethorpes Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
31/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
10/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
28/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury win (48%). Probabilities: Bury 48%, draw 24%, Cleethorpes Town 28%.

How many goals are expected in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Bury 1.78 · Cleethorpes Town 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.