Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Quorn vs Stockton Town

Team pages: Quorn · Stockton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Quorn2.04

Stockton Town1.7

1X2

45% 23% 31%

Quorn Draw Stockton Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Stockton Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1520 · Stockton Town 1464

	Quorn	Draw	Stockton Town
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Quorn (rating 1520 vs 1464).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Stockton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +29’	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Stockton Town
FC United of Manchester	1-1 D	2-2 D
Hyde Utd	2-2 D	1-2 L
Bamber Bridge	4-2 W	5-2 W
Whitby	3-6 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Stockton Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
27/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D

Stockton Town

LDWLWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
17/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
13/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
10/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Stockton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Quorn win (45%). Probabilities: Quorn 45%, draw 23%, Stockton Town 31%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Stockton Town?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Quorn 2.04 · Stockton Town 1.7), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Stockton Town?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.