Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 02/11, 16:00

Prediction: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Team pages: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm1.75

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1.22

1X2

49% 26% 26%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Draw Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDDDLW

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLDWL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–0 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed (1 last)

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed0-3Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1501 · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1435

	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Draw	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Our model	49%	26%	26%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (rating 1501 vs 1435).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	22/67/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:15 +9’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–0–0 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/01/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	0-3 HT 0-0	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	9	6	3	0	15	5	21
2	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	9	5	3	1	19	12	18
3	Ironi Nesher	7	5	1	1	20	6	16
4	Beitar Nahariya	8	5	1	2	14	8	16
5	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	8	3	5	0	13	7	14
6	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	7	3	3	1	12	7	12
7	Hapoel Beit Shean	8	3	3	2	11	6	12
8	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
9	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	7	3	2	2	12	13	11
10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	9	3	1	5	16	17	10
11	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
12	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	8	2	2	4	12	13	8
13	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
14	FC Tzeirey Tamra	7	2	0	5	8	18	6
15	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	8	2	0	6	6	16	6
16	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	8	1	2	5	7	16	5
17	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	8	1	2	5	5	20	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	3-1 W	1-3 L
Sport Club Tira	0-1 L	0-1 L
Hapoel Bnei Musmus	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

LLDDWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
18/10	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
09/10	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
01/10	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	13	5	D
09/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
26/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
21/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
12/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	6	3	L

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

WLLLLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-2	1	0	L
19/10	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
09/10	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
01/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
24/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-1	9	6	W
18/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-4	4	7	L
09/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
13/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win (49%). Probabilities: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 49%, draw 26%, Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 26%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.75 · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.