Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 06/11, 10:00

Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1.67

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1.05

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Draw Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDWDDW

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1–0 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye (1 last)

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1-2Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1553 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1459

	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Draw	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Our model	51%	27%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (rating 1553 vs 1459).
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.9 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +5’	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1–0–0 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/11/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	1-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	9	6	3	0	15	5	21
2	Ironi Nesher	8	6	1	1	25	6	19
3	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	9	5	3	1	19	12	18
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	9	4	5	0	15	8	17
5	Beitar Nahariya	9	5	1	3	14	10	16
6	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	8	4	3	1	15	7	15
7	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	8	4	2	2	14	13	14
8	Hapoel Beit Shean	8	3	3	2	11	6	12
9	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	9	3	1	5	16	17	10
11	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
12	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	8	2	2	4	12	13	8
13	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	9	2	1	6	10	17	7
14	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	8	2	0	6	6	16	6
15	FC Tzeirey Tamra	8	2	0	6	9	20	6
16	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	8	1	2	5	7	16	5
17	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	9	1	2	6	5	25	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
FC Tzeirey Tamra	2-1 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Nof HaGalil	3-3 D	1-2 L
Hapoel Beit Shean	1-1 D	1-2 L
Hapoel Tirat Karmel	1-0 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	0-0 D	3-3 D
Ironi Nesher	1-1 D	0-2 L
Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

LWWDDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
23/10	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	3-3	3-3	1	10	D
19/10	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/10	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
01/10	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
23/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
19/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/09	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	0	8	W
04/09	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	7	7	L

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

DDLDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
19/10	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	0	8	W
08/10	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
08/10	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/09	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/09	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	1	5	W
19/09	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	1	5	D
09/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
05/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win (51%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 51%, draw 26%, Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 23%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.67 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.