Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 08/11, 13:30

Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Arraba · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Hapoel Ironi Arraba1.02

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm2.22

1X2

15% 21% 64%

Hapoel Ironi Arraba Draw Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Ironi Arraba 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDWLL

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (1 last)

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3-2Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1432 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1519

	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Draw	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Our model	15%	21%	64%
Market	16%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (rating 1432 vs 1519).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.6	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.4	2.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:52 +19’	5.75	4.33	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–0–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3-2	Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	9	7	1	1	28	7	22
2	Sport Club Tira	10	6	4	0	16	6	22
3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	10	5	5	0	22	10	20
4	Beitar Nahariya	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
5	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	9	5	3	1	19	12	18
6	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	8	4	3	1	15	7	15
7	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	9	4	3	2	15	14	15
8	Hapoel Beit Shean	9	3	4	2	11	6	13
9	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	9	3	2	4	15	13	11
10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	10	3	2	5	16	17	11
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	10	3	1	6	14	17	10
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
13	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	9	2	2	5	14	20	8
14	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
15	FC Tzeirey Tamra	9	2	0	7	9	21	6
16	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	9	2	0	7	6	20	6
17	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	9	1	2	6	5	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Bnei Musmus	2-1 W	0-2 L
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1-4 L	3-0 W
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	0-4 L	3-1 W
Sport Club Tira	0-4 L	0-1 L
Beitar Nahariya	0-1 L	1-1 D
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

WLLLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-5	1	2	L
23/10	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-5	5	4	L
19/10	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
09/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
30/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
24/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	1-4	5	6	L
19/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
10/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-1	1	7	W

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

LDDWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	10	4	W
23/10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
18/10	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
09/10	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
01/10	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	13	5	D
09/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
26/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
21/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win (64%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Arraba 15%, draw 21%, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 64%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1.02 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2.22), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.