Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 01/11, 02:00

Prediction: Real Esteli vs HYH Export Sebaco FC

Team pages: Real Esteli · HYH Export Sebaco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Real Esteli2.32

HYH Export Sebaco FC0.91

1X2

68% 19% 13%

Real Esteli Draw HYH Export Sebaco FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Esteli 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWDLWW

HYH Export Sebaco FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Real Esteli 5–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC (6 last)

HYH Export Sebaco FC0-5Real Esteli
HYH Export Sebaco FC2-3Real Esteli
Real Esteli3-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
Real Esteli3-0HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC3-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli1-0HYH Export Sebaco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Esteli 1578 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1407

	Real Esteli	Draw	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	69%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Esteli (rating 1578 vs 1407).
H2H favours Real Esteli: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Esteli	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	0.9 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	4.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.30▲	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.39
2	8.50 → 7.00▼	Pinn 8.26 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +15’	1.22	5.25	8.50
17:19 +12’	1.30▲	4.75▼	7.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +9’	1.28	5.25	7.94
00:39 +25’	1.29▲	5.39▲	8.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Esteli 5–0–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-5 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
20/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	2-3 HT 2-1	Real Esteli
19/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	3-2 HT 2-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
07/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	3-0 HT 1-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
17/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Real Esteli
11/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	1-0 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	15	12	2	1	45	15	38
2	Diriangen	16	11	3	2	32	16	36
3	Real Esteli	16	9	4	3	31	16	31
4	UNAN Managua	15	7	4	4	18	16	25
5	CD Walter Ferretti	15	6	3	6	31	24	21
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	15	5	2	8	17	31	17
7	Jalapa	16	4	3	9	15	21	15
8	San Marcos FC	15	3	4	8	16	24	13
9	Matagalpa FC	14	3	1	10	7	31	10
10	Rancho Santana FC	15	1	4	10	12	30	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Esteli	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Diriangen	2-1 W	1-3 L
Managua FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-3 L	1-1 D
Jalapa	1-1 D	1-4 L
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	1-3 L
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
San Marcos FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Real Esteli (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Esteli

WWDDLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-1	7	10	W
26/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	11	W
19/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	8	8	L
16/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
11/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	3-0	4-1	2	0	W
08/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
11/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
03/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
30/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	3	5	W

HYH Export Sebaco FC

LLDLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	7	6	L
18/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
15/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
02/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Esteli vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Esteli win (68%). Probabilities: Real Esteli 68%, draw 19%, HYH Export Sebaco FC 13%.

How many goals are expected in Real Esteli vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Real Esteli 2.32 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 0.91), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Esteli vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.