Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 02/11, 00:00

Prediction: Rancho Santana FC vs Matagalpa FC

Team pages: Rancho Santana FC · Matagalpa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Rancho Santana FC1.59

Matagalpa FC1.49

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Rancho Santana FC Draw Matagalpa FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rancho Santana FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLDLLLD

Matagalpa FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Rancho Santana FC 3–1–2 Matagalpa FC (6 last)

Matagalpa FC0-1Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC2-8Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-2Rancho Santana FC
Matagalpa FC1-4Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC1-2Matagalpa FC
Rancho Santana FC1-1Matagalpa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rancho Santana FC 1442 · Matagalpa FC 1438

	Rancho Santana FC	Draw	Matagalpa FC
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rancho Santana FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rancho Santana FC	Matagalpa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	0.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.51
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +35’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +5’	2.20	3.51	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rancho Santana FC 3–1–2 Matagalpa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
01/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	2-8 HT 0-3	Matagalpa FC
24/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
27/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Rancho Santana FC
22/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
23/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	15	12	2	1	45	15	38
2	Diriangen	16	11	3	2	32	16	36
3	Real Esteli	16	9	4	3	31	16	31
4	UNAN Managua	15	7	4	4	18	16	25
5	CD Walter Ferretti	15	6	3	6	31	24	21
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	15	5	2	8	17	31	17
7	Jalapa	16	4	3	9	15	21	15
8	San Marcos FC	15	3	4	8	16	24	13
9	Matagalpa FC	14	3	1	10	7	31	10
10	Rancho Santana FC	15	1	4	10	12	30	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rancho Santana FC	Matagalpa FC
San Marcos FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
CD Walter Ferretti	1-4 L	1-5 L
Diriangen	0-1 L	0-3 L
UNAN Managua	1-1 D	1-0 W
Managua FC	1-6 L	1-4 L
Real Esteli	1-1 D	1-4 L
Jalapa	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rancho Santana FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rancho Santana FC

LWDDLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
25/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-4	4	3	L
19/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
15/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
03/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
03/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L

Matagalpa FC

WWLWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
25/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-5	–	–	L
11/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-3	1-4	0	0	L
07/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
04/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
30/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rancho Santana FC vs Matagalpa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rancho Santana FC win (39%). Probabilities: Rancho Santana FC 39%, draw 26%, Matagalpa FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Rancho Santana FC vs Matagalpa FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Rancho Santana FC 1.59 · Matagalpa FC 1.49), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rancho Santana FC vs Matagalpa FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.