Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 01/11, 23:00

Prediction: CD Walter Ferretti vs San Marcos FC

Team pages: CD Walter Ferretti · San Marcos FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

CD Walter Ferretti2.23

San Marcos FC0.93

1X2

66% 20% 14%

CD Walter Ferretti Draw San Marcos FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Walter Ferretti 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWWWWD

San Marcos FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDD

Head-to-head

CD Walter Ferretti 1–1 San Marcos FC (2 last)

San Marcos FC1-0CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti10-0San Marcos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Walter Ferretti 1525 · San Marcos FC 1457

	CD Walter Ferretti	Draw	San Marcos FC
Our model	66%	21%	14%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Walter Ferretti (rating 1525 vs 1457).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Walter Ferretti	San Marcos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.9	2.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.74 ★
2	6.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.60

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +23’	1.36	4.50	6.00
20:05 +10’	1.50▲	4.10▼	4.75▼
10:18 +4’	1.33▼	4.75▲	7.00▲
11:18 +5’	1.36▲	4.50▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +21’	1.49	4.26	5.24
08:12 +4’	1.42▼	4.48▲	5.82▲
09:15	1.31▼	4.70▲	6.53▲
09:51 +31’	1.27▼	4.90▲	7.04▲
12:40 +1’	1.29▲	4.84▼	6.86▼
14:03 +49’	1.31▲	4.74▼	6.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Walter Ferretti 1–0–1 San Marcos FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	San Marcos FC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
05/08/21 Nicaragua Cup	CD Walter Ferretti	10-0 HT 4-0	San Marcos FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	15	12	2	1	45	15	38
2	Diriangen	16	11	3	2	32	16	36
3	Real Esteli	16	9	4	3	31	16	31
4	UNAN Managua	15	7	4	4	18	16	25
5	CD Walter Ferretti	15	6	3	6	31	24	21
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	15	5	2	8	17	31	17
7	Jalapa	16	4	3	9	15	21	15
8	San Marcos FC	15	3	4	8	16	24	13
9	Matagalpa FC	14	3	1	10	7	31	10
10	Rancho Santana FC	15	1	4	10	12	30	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Walter Ferretti	San Marcos FC
UNAN Managua	1-1 D	2-3 L
Rancho Santana FC	4-1 W	2-2 D
Real Esteli	3-1 W	0-2 L
Matagalpa FC	5-1 W	0-0 D
Diriangen	4-2 W	1-2 L
Jalapa	2-2 D	3-1 W
Managua FC	2-3 L	2-3 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: CD Walter Ferretti (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Walter Ferretti

LLDLDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	6	10	D
25/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	4-1	11	3	W
19/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	2	8	W
15/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	5-1	–	–	W
11/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
04/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	7	L
02/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
31/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	8	L

San Marcos FC

WWLWLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	2-2	11	5	D
25/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
18/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
15/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
12/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
07/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
06/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
03/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
31/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
24/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Walter Ferretti vs San Marcos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Walter Ferretti win (66%). Probabilities: CD Walter Ferretti 66%, draw 20%, San Marcos FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in CD Walter Ferretti vs San Marcos FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (CD Walter Ferretti 2.23 · San Marcos FC 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Walter Ferretti vs San Marcos FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.