Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 11/11, 18:30

Prediction: NK Sampion Celje vs NK Smartno

Team pages: NK Sampion Celje · NK Smartno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

NK Sampion Celje1.56

NK Smartno2.13

1X2

28% 22% 50%

NK Sampion Celje Draw NK Smartno

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sampion Celje 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLLD

NK Smartno 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

NK Sampion Celje 3–3 NK Smartno (6 last)

NK Sampion Celje3-7NK Smartno
NK Smartno0-2NK Sampion Celje
NK Smartno2-4NK Sampion Celje
NK Smartno1-0NK Sampion Celje
NK Sampion Celje0-2NK Smartno
NK Smartno1-4NK Sampion Celje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sampion Celje 1404 · NK Smartno 1536

	NK Sampion Celje	Draw	NK Smartno
Our model	28%	23%	50%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Smartno (rating 1404 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sampion Celje	NK Smartno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	2.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/17/83%	50/17/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.10

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.27
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.89 ★
2	1.61 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:57 +4’	4.00	4.00	1.61
23:58 +3’	5.75▲	4.33▲	1.40▼
06:49 +13’	4.33▼	4.33	1.53▲
07:57 +4’	4.10▼	4.33	1.57▲
08:41 +20’	3.60▼	4.10▼	1.70▲
15:00 +1’	4.10▲	4.33▲	1.57▼
17:55 +7’	3.25▼	4.10▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:59 +2’	3.29	4.63	1.67
07:52 +9’	3.13▼	4.66▲	1.71▲
10:57 +4’	3.16▲	4.69▲	1.69▼
16:47 +13’	3.20▲	4.80▲	1.71▲
17:53 +8’	3.27▲	4.89▲	1.68▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sampion Celje 3–0–3 NK Smartno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	3-7 HT 0-3	NK Smartno
07/04/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Sampion Celje
07/05/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	2-4 HT 1-3	NK Sampion Celje
15/04/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Sampion Celje
18/11/18 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	0-2 HT 0-0	NK Smartno
18/05/14 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Smartno	1-4 HT 0-2	NK Sampion Celje

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	13	10	2	1	40	14	32
2	NK Ormoz	13	9	1	3	32	19	28
3	NK Fuzinar	13	8	1	4	40	25	25
4	NK Podvinci	13	7	2	4	23	22	23
5	NK Smartno	12	7	1	4	31	28	22
6	SD Videm	13	6	2	5	24	24	20
7	NK Race	13	4	6	3	13	11	18
8	NK Carda	13	5	3	5	27	26	18
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	13	4	5	4	21	20	17
10	NK Hajdina	13	4	4	5	19	24	16
11	NK Dobrovce	13	3	1	9	18	33	10
12	NK Ljutomer	13	2	3	8	14	25	9
13	NK Limbus Pekre	13	2	3	8	15	31	9
14	NK Sampion Celje	12	1	2	9	11	26	5
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sampion Celje	NK Smartno
NK Race	0-0 D	2-1 W
NK Hajdina	0-2 L	4-0 W
SD Videm	0-1 L	3-0 W
NK Odranci	1-5 L	0-6 L
NK Dobrovce	0-2 L	4-3 W
NK Fuzinar	3-4 L	1-5 L
NK Limbus Pekre	4-0 W	4-0 W
NK Ljutomer	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Smartno (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sampion Celje

LWLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
28/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
17/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
04/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
27/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
19/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-4	–	–	L
05/09	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	3	4	L

NK Smartno

WWLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	4-0	0	8	W
28/10	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-3	0-6	4	1	L
17/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	4-3	4	5	W
10/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
03/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	8-1	5	4	W
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Smartno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Smartno win (50%). Probabilities: NK Sampion Celje 28%, draw 22%, NK Smartno 50%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Smartno?

The model expects 3.69 goals (NK Sampion Celje 1.56 · NK Smartno 2.13), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Smartno?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.