Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Odranci vs NK Podvinci

Team pages: NK Odranci · NK Podvinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

NK Odranci2.74

NK Podvinci1.25

1X2

68% 18% 14%

NK Odranci Draw NK Podvinci

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Odranci 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWWWLW

NK Podvinci 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDLWWW

Head-to-head

NK Odranci 2–1–0 NK Podvinci (3 last)

NK Podvinci1-3NK Odranci
NK Podvinci1-4NK Odranci
NK Podvinci0-0NK Odranci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Odranci 1603 · NK Podvinci 1521

	NK Odranci	Draw	NK Podvinci
Our model	68%	17%	14%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Odranci (rating 1603 vs 1521).
H2H favours NK Odranci: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Odranci	NK Podvinci
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 6.03 ★
2	7.00 → 6.50▼	Pinn 7.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +3’	1.30	5.00	7.00
23:03 +4’	1.36▲	4.50▼	6.25▼
06:52 +12’	1.33▼	4.75▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:00 +5’	1.27	5.49	6.48
09:02 +1’	1.22▼	5.86▲	7.37▲
12:03 +1’	1.23▲	6.03▲	7.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Odranci 2–1–0 NK Podvinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	1-3 HT 0-1	NK Odranci
24/02/24 Club Friendly List	NK Podvinci	1-4 HT 0-1	NK Odranci
29/09/19 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Odranci

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	13	10	2	1	40	14	32
2	NK Ormoz	14	10	1	3	35	21	31
3	NK Fuzinar	14	9	1	4	43	26	28
4	NK Smartno	14	7	2	5	34	32	23
5	SD Videm	14	7	2	5	28	25	23
6	NK Podvinci	13	7	2	4	23	22	23
7	NK Race	14	5	6	3	14	11	21
8	NK Carda	14	6	3	5	28	26	21
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	14	4	5	5	22	24	17
10	NK Hajdina	14	4	4	6	19	25	16
11	NK Dobrovce	14	4	1	9	20	33	13
12	NK Ljutomer	14	2	3	9	14	27	9
13	NK Limbus Pekre	14	2	3	9	16	34	9
14	NK Sampion Celje	14	1	3	10	12	28	6
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Odranci	NK Podvinci
NK Carda	4-1 W	2-2 D
NK Race	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Smartno	6-0 W	1-8 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	3-1 W	2-0 W
NK Ormoz	3-0 W	2-0 W
SD Videm	3-3 D	0-2 L
NK Dobrovce	3-1 W	2-1 W
NK Fuzinar	5-3 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Odranci (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Odranci

WWDWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/10	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
28/10	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	3-0	6-0	7	1	W
17/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
27/09	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-1	–	–	W
20/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	3-3	7	4	D
12/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
06/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-3	–	–	W

NK Podvinci

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
31/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
28/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
10/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
04/10	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
29/09	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
26/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-8	6	4	L
12/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Odranci vs NK Podvinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Odranci win (68%). Probabilities: NK Odranci 68%, draw 18%, NK Podvinci 14%.

How many goals are expected in NK Odranci vs NK Podvinci?

The model expects 3.99 goals (NK Odranci 2.74 · NK Podvinci 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Odranci vs NK Podvinci?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.