Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Sampion Celje vs NK Carda

Team pages: NK Sampion Celje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

NK Sampion Celje1.46

NK Carda1.87

1X2

30% 24% 47%

NK Sampion Celje Draw NK Carda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sampion Celje 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLDD

NK Carda 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWLLWL

Head-to-head

NK Sampion Celje 0–1–2 NK Carda (3 last)

NK Carda3-2NK Sampion Celje
NK Carda2-2NK Sampion Celje
NK Sampion Celje0-2NK Carda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sampion Celje 1422 · NK Carda 1510

	NK Sampion Celje	Draw	NK Carda
Our model	29%	24%	46%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Carda (rating 1422 vs 1510).
H2H favours NK Carda: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sampion Celje	NK Carda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +13’	3.00	3.90	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sampion Celje 0–1–2 NK Carda

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Carda	3-2 HT 1-0	NK Sampion Celje
11/05/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Carda	2-2 HT 0-2	NK Sampion Celje
27/10/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sampion Celje	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Carda

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	13	10	2	1	40	14	32
2	NK Ormoz	13	9	1	3	32	19	28
3	NK Fuzinar	13	8	1	4	40	25	25
4	NK Smartno	13	7	2	4	32	29	23
5	NK Podvinci	13	7	2	4	23	22	23
6	SD Videm	13	6	2	5	24	24	20
7	NK Race	13	4	6	3	13	11	18
8	NK Carda	13	5	3	5	27	26	18
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	13	4	5	4	21	20	17
10	NK Hajdina	13	4	4	5	19	24	16
11	NK Dobrovce	13	3	1	9	18	33	10
12	NK Ljutomer	13	2	3	8	14	25	9
13	NK Limbus Pekre	13	2	3	8	15	31	9
14	NK Sampion Celje	13	1	3	9	12	27	6
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sampion Celje	NK Carda
NK Smartno	1-1 D	7-1 W
NK Race	0-0 D	2-2 D
NK Korotan Prevalje	0-3 L	1-1 D
SD Videm	0-1 L	2-1 W
NK Odranci	1-5 L	1-4 L
NK Dobrovce	0-2 L	3-1 W
NK Fuzinar	3-4 L	0-3 L
NK Limbus Pekre	4-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Carda (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sampion Celje

WLLLLLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
07/11	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
28/10	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
17/10	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
04/10	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
27/09	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
19/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/09	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-4	–	–	L
05/09	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W

NK Carda

DWDWDWLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/10	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
28/10	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
10/10	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	2-2	6	4	D
27/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	2-2	4	7	D
12/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	5-0	7-1	5	4	W
04/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Carda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Carda win (47%). Probabilities: NK Sampion Celje 30%, draw 24%, NK Carda 47%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Carda?

The model expects 3.32 goals (NK Sampion Celje 1.46 · NK Carda 1.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sampion Celje vs NK Carda?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.