Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Tauras vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Tauras · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

FK Tauras1.04

FK Minija2.41

1X2

14% 19% 67%

FK Tauras Draw FK Minija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tauras 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLWDLW

FK Minija 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

FK Tauras 4–1–1 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija2-1FK Tauras
FK Minija1-2FK Tauras
FK Tauras3-0FK Minija
FK Tauras2-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-0FK Tauras
FK Minija2-4FK Tauras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tauras 1484 · FK Minija 1572

	FK Tauras	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	14%	19%	67%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1484 vs 1572).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tauras	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	4.2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.38 ★
2	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.34

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +1’	6.00	4.75	1.33
05:48 +12’	6.50▲	4.75	1.33
10:01 +1’	6.25▼	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +1’	6.17	5.61	1.28
06:43 +18’	6.05▼	5.50▼	1.29▲
09:39 +22’	5.52▼	5.24▼	1.34▲
12:02 +1’	5.67▲	5.38▲	1.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tauras 4–1–1 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
02/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Tauras
29/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	3-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
26/07/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Minija
13/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Tauras
24/10/15 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-4 HT 0-2	FK Tauras

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
6	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
7	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tauras	FK Minija
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	5-0 W
FK BE1	1-2 L	3-0 W
FK Atmosfera	1-3 L	3-1 W
BFA Vilnius	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Babrungas	1-1 D	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tauras

LWDDLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
24/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
16/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-4	4	3	D
18/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	3	W
12/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
05/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
28/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
21/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L

FK Minija

WWWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
24/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	4	7	L
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (67%). Probabilities: FK Tauras 14%, draw 19%, FK Minija 67%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

The model expects 3.45 goals (FK Tauras 1.04 · FK Minija 2.41), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tauras vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.