Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 05/11, 02:30

Prediction: CD Olimpia vs Juticalpa

Team pages: CD Olimpia · Juticalpa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

CD Olimpia3.01

Juticalpa1.01

1X2

79% 13% 8%

CD Olimpia Draw Juticalpa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Olimpia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWWWWW

Juticalpa 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

CD Olimpia 4–2–0 Juticalpa (6 last)

Juticalpa1-3CD Olimpia
Juticalpa1-6CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-2Juticalpa
Juticalpa0-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-2Juticalpa
Juticalpa1-2CD Olimpia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Olimpia 1620 · Juticalpa 1405

	CD Olimpia	Draw	Juticalpa
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	81%	12%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1620 vs 1405).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Olimpia	Juticalpa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.7	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.13

X7.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +2’	1.13	7.50	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Olimpia 4–2–0 Juticalpa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-3 HT 0-2	CD Olimpia
23/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-6 HT 1-2	CD Olimpia
01/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-2 HT 1-1	Juticalpa
20/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Olimpia
11/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-2 HT 1-1	Juticalpa
11/03/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-2 HT 1-0	CD Olimpia

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	12	9	2	1	26	8	29
2	Real Espana	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
3	Motagua	12	8	1	3	19	9	25
4	CD Marathon	12	6	4	2	18	11	22
5	Olancho FC	12	3	7	2	15	12	16
6	Estrella Roja	12	4	4	4	21	22	16
7	Lobos UPNFM	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
8	Atletico Choloma	12	4	1	7	12	15	13
9	Genesis de Comayagua	12	3	2	7	15	16	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	12	2	5	5	11	21	11
11	CD Platense	12	2	2	8	12	29	8
12	Juticalpa	12	2	0	10	11	28	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Olimpia	Juticalpa
Atletico Choloma	3-0 W	1-2 L
Lobos UPNFM	1-0 W	1-0 W
Real Espana	2-1 W	1-3 L
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	0-3 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4-0 W	1-2 L
CD Marathon	0-1 L	3-2 W
CD Platense	4-1 W	1-2 L
Estrella Roja	2-2 D	2-5 L
Olancho FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Motagua	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Olimpia

WDDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
26/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/10	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
10/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	14	L
04/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
30/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
24/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	7	8	W

Juticalpa

LLWLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
25/10	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
18/10	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
09/10	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
21/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	3-2	4	9	W
14/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
07/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
29/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
23/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-5	–	–	L
17/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Olimpia vs Juticalpa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Olimpia win (79%). Probabilities: CD Olimpia 79%, draw 13%, Juticalpa 8%.

How many goals are expected in CD Olimpia vs Juticalpa?

The model expects 4.02 goals (CD Olimpia 3.01 · Juticalpa 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Olimpia vs Juticalpa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.