Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 05/11, 00:15

Prediction: Estrella Roja vs Motagua

Team pages: Estrella Roja · Motagua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Estrella Roja1.15

Motagua1.76

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Estrella Roja Draw Motagua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella Roja 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLLWDW

Motagua 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Estrella Roja 1–0 Motagua (1 last)

Motagua0-2Estrella Roja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella Roja 1510 · Motagua 1545

	Estrella Roja	Draw	Motagua
Our model	24%	26%	51%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella Roja	Motagua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.4	3.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.60

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +4’	3.70	3.60	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella Roja 1–0–0 Motagua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	0-2 HT 0-0	Estrella Roja

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	12	9	2	1	26	8	29
2	Real Espana	12	8	3	1	22	10	27
3	Motagua	12	8	1	3	19	9	25
4	CD Marathon	12	6	4	2	18	11	22
5	Olancho FC	12	3	7	2	15	12	16
6	Estrella Roja	12	4	4	4	21	22	16
7	Lobos UPNFM	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
8	Atletico Choloma	12	4	1	7	12	15	13
9	Genesis de Comayagua	12	3	2	7	15	16	11
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	12	2	5	5	11	21	11
11	CD Platense	12	2	2	8	12	29	8
12	Juticalpa	12	2	0	10	11	28	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrella Roja	Motagua
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	3-1 W	0-0 D
Olancho FC	3-3 D	2-1 W
Genesis de Comayagua	2-1 W	1-0 W
Real Espana	0-1 L	0-1 L
Atletico Choloma	0-2 L	2-1 W
CD Platense	2-2 D	2-0 W
CD Marathon	0-5 L	2-0 W
CD Olimpia	2-2 D	1-3 L
Juticalpa	5-2 W	2-0 W
Lobos UPNFM	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella Roja

DWDLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
24/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-3	5	3	D
18/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	7	13	W
11/10	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
19/09	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
12/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	14	7	D
06/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	0-5	10	1	L
30/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-2	2	9	D
23/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	5-2	–	–	W
16/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	5	3	D

Motagua

LWWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
25/10	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
17/10	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
11/10	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	8	9	W
20/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
13/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
30/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
22/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
17/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella Roja vs Motagua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motagua win (51%). Probabilities: Estrella Roja 24%, draw 25%, Motagua 51%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella Roja vs Motagua?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Estrella Roja 1.15 · Motagua 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella Roja vs Motagua?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.