Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 05/11, 22:00
Prediction: Genesis de Comayagua vs Real Espana
Team pages: Genesis de Comayagua · Real Espana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Genesis de Comayagua1.06
Real Espana1.49
1X2
Genesis de Comayagua
Draw
Real Espana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Genesis de Comayagua
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Real Espana
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Genesis de Comayagua
0–1–4
Real Espana
(5 last)
- Real Espana2-0Genesis de Comayagua
- Real Espana2-1Genesis de Comayagua
- Genesis de Comayagua1-2Real Espana
- Real Espana1-0Genesis de Comayagua
- Genesis de Comayagua1-1Real Espana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Genesis de Comayagua 1424 · Real Espana 1585
| Genesis de Comayagua | Draw | Real Espana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Espana (rating 1424 vs 1585).
- H2H favours Real Espana: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Genesis de Comayagua | Real Espana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 6.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Genesis de Comayagua 0–1–4 Real Espana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Genesis de Comayagua |
| 19/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Genesis de Comayagua |
| 28/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Real Espana |
| 27/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Real Espana | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Genesis de Comayagua |
| 15/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Real Espana |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 29 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Motagua | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | CD Marathon | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Estrella Roja | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 7 | Lobos UPNFM | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico Choloma | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 11 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Genesis de Comayagua | Real Espana |
|---|---|---|
| Lobos UPNFM | 3-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Atletico Choloma | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Estrella Roja | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Olimpia | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Olancho FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Motagua | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Juticalpa | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| CD Marathon | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CD Platense | 3-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 6 L | 6 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Espana (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Genesis de Comayagua
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 13 | L |
| 10/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/09 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 07/09 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Real Espana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 11/10 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 10 | D |
| 07/09 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Genesis de Comayagua vs Real Espana?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Espana win (46%). Probabilities: Genesis de Comayagua 27%, draw 27%, Real Espana 46%.
How many goals are expected in Genesis de Comayagua vs Real Espana?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Genesis de Comayagua 1.06 · Real Espana 1.49), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Genesis de Comayagua vs Real Espana?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.