Football · Iraq Stars League · 30/10, 17:30

Prediction: Erbil SC vs Ghaz Al Shamal

Team pages: Erbil SC · Ghaz Al Shamal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Erbil SC1.36

Ghaz Al Shamal0.61

1X2

55% 28% 17%

Erbil SC Draw Ghaz Al Shamal

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Erbil SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWDLL

Ghaz Al Shamal 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDDLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erbil SC 1498 · Ghaz Al Shamal 1511

	Erbil SC	Draw	Ghaz Al Shamal
Our model	54%	31%	16%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erbil SC	Ghaz Al Shamal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:54 +12’	1.60	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erbil SC	Ghaz Al Shamal
Naft Maysan	1-1 D	1-0 W
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Al Minaa	2-0 W	0-2 L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erbil SC

DWWDWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
18/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
08/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Ghaz Al Shamal

DDWLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
18/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
10/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
12/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
08/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
04/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
30/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
20/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	11	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erbil SC vs Ghaz Al Shamal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erbil SC win (55%). Probabilities: Erbil SC 55%, draw 28%, Ghaz Al Shamal 17%.

How many goals are expected in Erbil SC vs Ghaz Al Shamal?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Erbil SC 1.36 · Ghaz Al Shamal 0.61), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Erbil SC vs Ghaz Al Shamal?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.