Football · Iraq Stars League · 31/10, 17:30
Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Newroz SC
Team pages: Al Shorta SC · Newroz SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.83Total
Al Shorta SC1.16
Newroz SC0.66
1X2
Al Shorta SC
Draw
Newroz SC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Al Shorta SC
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Newroz SC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al Shorta SC
3–3–0
Newroz SC
(6 last)
- Newroz SC0-3Al Shorta SC
- Al Shorta SC3-2Newroz SC
- Newroz SC0-1Al Shorta SC
- Al Shorta SC2-2Newroz SC
- Al Shorta SC4-4Newroz SC
- Newroz SC1-1Al Shorta SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1588 · Newroz SC 1536
| Al Shorta SC | Draw | Newroz SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 34% | 20% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Shorta SC (rating 1588 vs 1536).
- H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Shorta SC | Newroz SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 2.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 3–3–0 Newroz SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 Iraq Stars League | Newroz SC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Al Shorta SC |
| 25/09/25 Iraq Stars League | Al Shorta SC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Newroz SC |
| 03/05/25 Iraq Stars League | Newroz SC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Al Shorta SC |
| 24/01/25 Iraq Stars League | Al Shorta SC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Newroz SC |
| 04/05/24 Iraq League | Al Shorta SC | 4-4 HT 2-2 | Newroz SC |
| 29/02/24 Iraq League | Newroz SC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Al Shorta SC |
Standings · Iraq Stars League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Al Naft SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 22 |
| 3 | Al Shorta SC | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Newroz SC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Erbil SC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Al Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Al Talaba | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Minaa | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 12 | Diyala FC | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Mosul FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 15 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 12 |
| 16 | Al Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbalaa FC | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Shorta SC | Newroz SC |
|---|---|---|
| Al Talaba | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Al Gharraf | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Mosul FC | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Al Jolan SC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Shorta SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Al Karkh Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 08/10 | Al Talaba Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 08/09 | Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Erbil SC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Mosul FC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/08 | Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Al Karma Iraq Stars League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Newroz SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Diyala FC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 16/10 | Al Minaa Iraq Stars League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | Zakho Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/09 | Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/09 | Mosul FC Iraq Stars League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Duhok Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/08 | Al Talaba Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 22/08 | Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Newroz SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (48%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 48%, draw 30%, Newroz SC 22%.
How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Newroz SC?
The model expects 1.83 goals (Al Shorta SC 1.16 · Newroz SC 0.66), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Newroz SC?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.