Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 30/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Team pages: Hapoel Bnei Musmus · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Hapoel Bnei Musmus1.29

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq1.74

1X2

28% 26% 47%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus Draw Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWDLL

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWDWW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–2 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (2 last)

Hapoel Bnei Musmus0-5Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq3-1Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1458 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1575

	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Draw	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	28%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (rating 1458 vs 1575).
H2H favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.6	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +13’	3.25	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–0–2 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	0-5	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
17/01/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3-1 HT 1-0	Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	8	6	2	0	15	5	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	5	1	1	20	6	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	8	5	1	2	14	8	16
4	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	8	4	3	1	15	11	15
5	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	8	3	5	0	13	7	14
6	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	7	3	3	1	12	7	12
7	Hapoel Beit Shean	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
8	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	7	3	2	2	12	13	11
9	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	8	3	1	4	16	16	10
10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
11	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	7	2	2	3	11	11	8
12	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	8	2	2	4	12	13	8
13	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
14	FC Tzeirey Tamra	7	2	0	5	8	18	6
15	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
16	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	8	1	2	5	5	20	5
17	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	7	1	0	6	5	16	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Bnei Jat United	2-4 L	1-1 D
Hapoel Ironi Arraba	1-2 L	1-1 D
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	0-0 D	4-2 W
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

WWDLLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-4	2-4	4	6	L
19/10	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
09/10	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
30/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
10/09	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
06/09	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
21/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-1	4	4	W

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

WWDWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
23/10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
08/10	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
24/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
18/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	4-2	3	7	W
05/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
27/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Migdal Haemeq win (47%). Probabilities: Hapoel Bnei Musmus 28%, draw 26%, Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 47%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1.29 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.