Football · Panama LPF · 01/11, 02:30

Prediction: Veraguas CD vs Herrera FC

Team pages: Veraguas CD · Herrera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Veraguas CD2.41

Herrera FC1.37

1X2

60% 20% 20%

Veraguas CD Draw Herrera FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Veraguas CD 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDDWLW

Herrera FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Veraguas CD 4–1–1 Herrera FC (6 last)

Herrera FC2-2Veraguas CD
Herrera FC1-2Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD5-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC0-2Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD4-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC3-0Veraguas CD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Veraguas CD 1528 · Herrera FC 1413

	Veraguas CD	Draw	Herrera FC
Our model	60%	20%	20%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Veraguas CD (rating 1528 vs 1413).
H2H favours Veraguas CD: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Veraguas CD	Herrera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.6	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.50▲	Pinn 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.33 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:17 +5’	1.48	4.20	5.25
17:13 +19’	1.50▲	4.50▲	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:44 +36’	1.50	4.29	5.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Veraguas CD 4–1–1 Herrera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Veraguas CD
12/04/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Veraguas CD
09/02/26 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	5-0 HT 3-0	Herrera FC
12/10/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Veraguas CD
19/07/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	4-1 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
10/05/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Veraguas CD

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	13	8	2	3	26	15	26
2	Veraguas CD	13	5	6	2	21	18	21
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	13	4	5	4	19	18	17
4	CD Universitario	13	2	5	6	10	14	11
5	Herrera FC	13	3	2	8	13	29	11
6	Union Cocle	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Veraguas CD	Herrera FC
Union Cocle	3-0 W	3-2 W
Tauro FC	2-1 W	0-6 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 D	1-3 L
Plaza Amador	1-1 D	1-4 L
Alianza FC Panama	2-1 W	1-0 W
CD Arabe Unido	1-3 L	1-2 L
UMECIT	1-1 D	1-3 L
San Francisco FC	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Veraguas CD (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Veraguas CD

DDDLWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
18/10	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-3	1-3	5	10	L
04/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-0	2-1	7	13	W
28/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
14/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
05/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
01/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
23/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-2	3-3	5	3	D
16/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	7	6	D

Herrera FC

DLLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
18/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-2	3-2	3	2	W
04/10	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	2	10	W
26/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	1	6	L
20/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-2	0-6	9	7	L
13/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
06/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
31/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Veraguas CD vs Herrera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Veraguas CD win (60%). Probabilities: Veraguas CD 60%, draw 20%, Herrera FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Veraguas CD vs Herrera FC?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Veraguas CD 2.41 · Herrera FC 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Veraguas CD vs Herrera FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.