Football · Panama LPF · 07/11, 02:30

Prediction: Plaza Amador vs Sporting San Miguelito

Team pages: Plaza Amador · Sporting San Miguelito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Plaza Amador1.88

Sporting San Miguelito1.06

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Plaza Amador Draw Sporting San Miguelito

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Amador 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWWWWW

Sporting San Miguelito 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDWLWD

Head-to-head

Plaza Amador 2–1–3 Sporting San Miguelito (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito0-2Plaza Amador
Sporting San Miguelito0-3Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador0-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-1Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador2-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-0Plaza Amador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Amador 1578 · Sporting San Miguelito 1476

	Plaza Amador	Draw	Sporting San Miguelito
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1578 vs 1476).
H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Amador	Sporting San Miguelito
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.01
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +32’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +4’	1.55	4.01	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Amador 2–1–3 Sporting San Miguelito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-2 HT 0-1	Plaza Amador
20/04/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-3 HT 0-2	Plaza Amador
18/01/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	0-3 HT 0-2	Sporting San Miguelito
09/11/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 HT 1-1	Plaza Amador
30/10/25 CONCACAF Central American Cup	Plaza Amador	2-3 HT 2-1	Sporting San Miguelito
23/10/25 CONCACAF Central American Cup	Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Amador

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	14	10	3	1	35	16	33
2	CD Arabe Unido	14	6	5	3	18	14	23
3	UMECIT	14	5	6	3	13	11	21
4	Tauro FC	14	6	2	6	21	15	20
5	Sporting San Miguelito	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
6	Alianza FC Panama	14	3	5	6	13	21	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Amador	Sporting San Miguelito
Alianza FC Panama	6-0 W	3-1 W
Tauro FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
CD Arabe Unido	2-0 W	0-1 L
CD Universitario	2-1 W	1-1 D
Union Cocle	2-1 W	3-1 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-1 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 D	3-4 L
Herrera FC	4-1 W	3-1 W
San Francisco FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
UMECIT	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	7 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plaza Amador

WLWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	4-0	6-0	3	4	W
25/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
18/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
04/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
27/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
20/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
13/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	7	3	W
30/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	4	2	L
24/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	3-0	0	2	W

Sporting San Miguelito

LWDLLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/10	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	2-1	3-1	0	4	W
20/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
06/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	6	W
28/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
21/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
15/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
06/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Amador vs Sporting San Miguelito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plaza Amador win (55%). Probabilities: Plaza Amador 55%, draw 25%, Sporting San Miguelito 20%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Amador vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Plaza Amador 1.88 · Sporting San Miguelito 1.06), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Amador vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.