Football · Panama LPF · 07/11, 02:30

Prediction: Alianza FC Panama vs CD Arabe Unido

Team pages: Alianza FC Panama · CD Arabe Unido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Alianza FC Panama1.15

CD Arabe Unido1.34

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Alianza FC Panama Draw CD Arabe Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Panama 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWLLLL

CD Arabe Unido 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Panama 2–3–1 CD Arabe Unido (6 last)

CD Arabe Unido0-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-2CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido2-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama1-2CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido1-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama3-2CD Arabe Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Panama 1456 · CD Arabe Unido 1512

	Alianza FC Panama	Draw	CD Arabe Unido
Our model	31%	30%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Arabe Unido (rating 1456 vs 1512).
H2H favours Alianza FC Panama: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Panama	CD Arabe Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.52 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +10’	2.90	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:40 +30’	2.88	2.94	2.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Panama 2–3–1 CD Arabe Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
26/04/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-2 HT 2-0	CD Arabe Unido
25/01/26 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	2-2 HT 0-2	Alianza FC Panama
02/11/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-2 HT 1-1	CD Arabe Unido
03/08/25 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Panama
11/05/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	3-2 HT 1-1	CD Arabe Unido

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	14	10	3	1	35	16	33
2	CD Arabe Unido	14	6	5	3	18	14	23
3	UMECIT	14	5	6	3	13	11	21
4	Tauro FC	14	6	2	6	21	15	20
5	Sporting San Miguelito	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
6	Alianza FC Panama	14	3	5	6	13	21	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Panama	CD Arabe Unido
Plaza Amador	0-6 L	0-2 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-3 L	1-0 W
UMECIT	1-2 L	1-1 D
Herrera FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-0 W	1-1 D
CD Universitario	0-0 D	0-0 D
Veraguas CD	1-2 L	3-1 W
San Francisco FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Union Cocle	2-2 D	4-1 W
Tauro FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Arabe Unido (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Panama

WDDLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-4	0-6	1	4	L
26/10	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-2	1-3	11	4	L
19/10	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
04/10	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
29/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
07/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

CD Arabe Unido

WDWWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-2	1-3	8	3	L
24/10	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
18/10	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
05/10	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
26/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
19/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
05/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	7	7	W
30/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
22/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	0	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Panama vs CD Arabe Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Arabe Unido win (40%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Panama 31%, draw 29%, CD Arabe Unido 40%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Panama vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Alianza FC Panama 1.15 · CD Arabe Unido 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Panama vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.