Football · England National League South · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Salisbury FC vs Braintree Town

Team pages: Salisbury FC · Braintree Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Salisbury FC2.51

Braintree Town1.28

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Salisbury FC Draw Braintree Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Salisbury FC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWDWW

Braintree Town 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Salisbury FC 1–0 Braintree Town (1 last)

Salisbury FC2-1Braintree Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salisbury FC 1634 · Braintree Town 1459

	Salisbury FC	Draw	Braintree Town
Our model	63%	19%	17%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salisbury FC (rating 1634 vs 1459).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salisbury FC	Braintree Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +5’	1.44	4.33	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salisbury FC 1–0–0 Braintree Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/01/19 England FA Trophy	Salisbury FC	2-1	Braintree Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	15	10	4	1	36	10	34
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
4	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
5	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
9	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
10	Chelmsford	15	5	9	1	23	15	24
11	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
12	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
13	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
14	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	15	5	1	9	22	38	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	16	3	6	7	15	24	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salisbury FC	Braintree Town
Walton & Hersham	2-0 W	1-3 L
Farnham	2-1 W	0-6 L
Truro City	1-0 W	1-2 L
Slough	5-1 W	2-1 W
Billericay Town	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Salisbury FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salisbury FC

WDWDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
27/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
24/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Farnham England National League South	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	0	W
15/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W

Braintree Town

WWLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
31/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/10	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
24/10	Farnham England National League South	0-2	0-6	5	3	L
10/10	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-4	6	5	L
15/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
12/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	11	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salisbury FC vs Braintree Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Salisbury FC win (63%). Probabilities: Salisbury FC 63%, draw 20%, Braintree Town 17%.

How many goals are expected in Salisbury FC vs Braintree Town?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Salisbury FC 2.51 · Braintree Town 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Salisbury FC vs Braintree Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.