Football · England National League South · 09/11, 20:45

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Chelmsford · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Chelmsford1.1

Ebbsfleet United1.61

1X2

25% 26% 48%

Chelmsford Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDWDWWLW

Ebbsfleet United 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Chelmsford 0–1–5 Ebbsfleet United (6 last)

Chelmsford0-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United1-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-0Chelmsford
Ebbsfleet United2-1Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-0Ebbsfleet United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1549 · Ebbsfleet United 1583

	Chelmsford	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3.5 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.66
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	1.95 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:19 +2’	3.10	3.50	1.95
14:58 +4’	3.50▲	3.50	1.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:42 +14’	3.66	3.76	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 0–1–5 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
19/08/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-0 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
25/02/23 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-1 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United
17/01/23 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-0 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
07/05/22 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
30/08/21 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-0 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	15	10	4	1	36	10	34
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
4	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
5	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
9	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
10	Chelmsford	15	5	9	1	23	15	24
11	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
12	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
13	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
14	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	15	5	1	9	22	38	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	16	3	6	7	15	24	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Ebbsfleet United
Farnborough	2-1 W	6-0 W
AFC Totton	3-1 W	5-0 W
Chesham	5-0 W	1-0 W
Horsham	0-0 D	2-2 D
Hampton & Richmond	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

DDDDWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/11	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
31/10	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
27/10	Dover England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Ebbsfleet United

WWWWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
03/11	Farnborough England National League South	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
31/10	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
27/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	3-1	6	7	W
24/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (48%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 25%, draw 26%, Ebbsfleet United 48%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Chelmsford 1.1 · Ebbsfleet United 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.