Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Horsham vs AFC Totton

Team pages: Horsham · AFC Totton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Horsham1.96

AFC Totton1.04

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Horsham Draw AFC Totton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsham 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDLWDWDW

AFC Totton 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Horsham 1–2 AFC Totton (3 last)

AFC Totton3-0Horsham
Horsham0-2AFC Totton
Horsham2-0AFC Totton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsham 1518 · AFC Totton 1439

	Horsham	Draw	AFC Totton
Our model	58%	24%	19%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Horsham (rating 1518 vs 1439).
H2H favours AFC Totton: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsham	AFC Totton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.6	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +5’	1.55	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 1–0–2 AFC Totton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England National League South	AFC Totton	3-0 HT 0-0	Horsham
20/09/25 England National League South	Horsham	0-2 HT 0-1	AFC Totton
09/12/23 England FA Trophy	Horsham	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Totton

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsham	AFC Totton
Walton & Hersham	1-0 W	0-1 L
Ebbsfleet United	2-2 D	0-5 L
Slough	2-1 W	0-1 L
Chelmsford	0-0 D	1-3 L
Folkestone Invicta	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Horsham (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsham

DDLDLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	5-0	7	2	W
27/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	12	0	D
24/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
20/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
17/10	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

AFC Totton

WLLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-3	1-3	7	5	L
27/10	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
13/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-5	3	5	L
10/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Dover England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsham vs AFC Totton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsham win (58%). Probabilities: Horsham 58%, draw 23%, AFC Totton 19%.

How many goals are expected in Horsham vs AFC Totton?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Horsham 1.96 · AFC Totton 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsham vs AFC Totton?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.