Football · England National League South · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Truro City vs Billericay Town

Team pages: Truro City · Billericay Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Truro City1.84

Billericay Town1.28

1X2

50% 25% 26%

Truro City Draw Billericay Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Truro City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWWWW

Billericay Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Truro City 0–2 Billericay Town (2 last)

Billericay Town3-2Truro City
Truro City0-4Billericay Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Truro City 1589 · Billericay Town 1545

	Truro City	Draw	Billericay Town
Our model	50%	25%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1589 vs 1545).
H2H favours Billericay Town: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Truro City	Billericay Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	2.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +3’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Truro City 0–0–2 Billericay Town

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/19 England National League South	Billericay Town	3-2 HT 2-1	Truro City
04/08/18 England National League South	Truro City	0-4 HT 0-2	Billericay Town

Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Truro City	Billericay Town
Hampton & Richmond	4-3 W	2-2 D
Braintree Town	2-1 W	3-2 W
Salisbury FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Chesham	3-1 W	2-1 W
Dorking Wanderers	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Truro City (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Truro City

LWDLWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
27/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-2	4-3	2	3	W
10/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
06/10	Farnham England National League South	2-0	2-2	7	2	D
26/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
15/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
12/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Chesham England National League South	1-1	3-1	11	1	W
31/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Billericay Town

LDWDWWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
31/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
27/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/09	Torquay England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
15/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	3-2	9	3	W
12/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
08/09	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-3	6	4	D
31/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Truro City vs Billericay Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Truro City win (50%). Probabilities: Truro City 50%, draw 25%, Billericay Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in Truro City vs Billericay Town?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Truro City 1.84 · Billericay Town 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Truro City vs Billericay Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.