Football · England National League South · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham

Team pages: Tonbridge Angels · Chesham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Tonbridge Angels1.76

Chesham1.36

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Tonbridge Angels Draw Chesham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tonbridge Angels 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDWLL

Chesham 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Tonbridge Angels 2–1–1 Chesham (4 last)

Chesham1-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels0-0Chesham
Chesham0-1Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels1-0Chesham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tonbridge Angels 1531 · Chesham 1435

	Tonbridge Angels	Draw	Chesham
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tonbridge Angels (rating 1531 vs 1435).
H2H favours Tonbridge Angels: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tonbridge Angels	Chesham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +1’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tonbridge Angels 2–1–1 Chesham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League South	Chesham	1-0 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
23/08/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	0-0 HT 0-0	Chesham
11/03/25 England National League South	Chesham	0-1 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
17/12/24 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-0 HT 1-0	Chesham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	38	12	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Salisbury FC	15	9	4	2	27	10	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
5	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Chelmsford	16	5	10	1	25	17	25
9	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	24	17	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
14	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	16	5	1	10	22	40	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	17	3	6	8	15	26	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tonbridge Angels	Chesham
Farnham	1-3 L	2-4 L
Folkestone Invicta	2-0 W	2-2 D
Chelmsford	3-3 D	0-5 L
Maidenhead Utd	1-0 W	0-4 L
Ebbsfleet United	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tonbridge Angels (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tonbridge Angels

WLDLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
31/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
27/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
24/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
17/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
26/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
12/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W

Chesham

DLLWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
31/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
27/10	Farnham England National League South	1-2	2-4	7	1	L
24/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
10/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-5	0-5	3	3	L
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tonbridge Angels win (46%). Probabilities: Tonbridge Angels 46%, draw 25%, Chesham 29%.

How many goals are expected in Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Tonbridge Angels 1.76 · Chesham 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.