Football · England National League South · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Torquay

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · Torquay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Hemel Hempstead1.16

Torquay1.65

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Hemel Hempstead Draw Torquay

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hemel Hempstead 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLLDLL

Torquay 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Hemel Hempstead 3–3 Torquay (6 last)

Torquay1-2Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-1Torquay
Hemel Hempstead1-4Torquay
Torquay1-0Hemel Hempstead
Torquay3-2Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead3-2Torquay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1456 · Torquay 1524

	Hemel Hempstead	Draw	Torquay
Our model	26%	27%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1456 vs 1524).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hemel Hempstead	Torquay
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +13’	3.40	3.60	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 3–0–3 Torquay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League South	Torquay	1-2 HT 1-1	Hemel Hempstead
30/08/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-1 HT 1-0	Torquay
26/04/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-4 HT 0-2	Torquay
21/12/24 England National League South	Torquay	1-0 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
16/12/23 England National League South	Torquay	3-2 HT 2-2	Hemel Hempstead
23/09/23 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	3-2 HT 1-0	Torquay

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	15	10	4	1	36	10	34
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	28	19	32
3	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
4	Farnham	16	9	2	5	32	20	29
5	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	34	18	26
8	Dag & Red	16	7	4	5	15	13	25
9	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	28	19	24
10	Chelmsford	15	5	9	1	23	15	24
11	Horsham	16	5	7	4	23	19	22
12	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
13	Weston Super Mare	15	6	3	6	25	22	21
14	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	17	29	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	13	33	17
18	Maidenhead Utd	16	3	7	6	15	20	16
19	Braintree Town	15	5	1	9	22	38	16
20	Hemel Hempstead	16	3	6	7	15	24	15
21	Chesham	15	3	2	10	20	33	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	19	37	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	11	36	8
24	Slough	16	2	1	13	18	40	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hemel Hempstead	Torquay
Maidstone Utd	1-2 L	1-1 D
Billericay Town	0-5 L	0-3 L
Dorking Wanderers	3-3 D	2-2 D
AFC Totton	1-3 L	0-1 L
Slough	2-0 W	5-1 W
Farnham	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Torquay (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hemel Hempstead

DDDWDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
31/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-5	8	4	L
27/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-1	3-3	2	3	D
24/10	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D

Torquay

DLWWDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
27/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
24/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
10/10	Slough England National League South	0-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
12/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	4-0	2	9	W
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
29/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Torquay?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Torquay win (48%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 26%, draw 26%, Torquay 48%.

How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Torquay?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.16 · Torquay 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Torquay?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.