Football · Panama LPF · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: Sporting San Miguelito vs UMECIT

Team pages: Sporting San Miguelito · UMECIT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Sporting San Miguelito1.36

UMECIT1.29

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Sporting San Miguelito Draw UMECIT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting San Miguelito 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDWLW

UMECIT 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Sporting San Miguelito 1–4–1 UMECIT (6 last)

UMECIT0-1Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito2-2UMECIT
UMECIT2-2Sporting San Miguelito
UMECIT3-3Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito0-1UMECIT
UMECIT0-0Sporting San Miguelito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting San Miguelito 1502 · UMECIT 1522

	Sporting San Miguelito	Draw	UMECIT
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting San Miguelito	UMECIT
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.67 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.77

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:09 +10’	2.40	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +55’	2.45	2.98	2.94
22:49 +9’	2.63▲	2.98	2.72▼
07:03 +20’	2.64▲	2.94▼	2.73▲
20:11 +22’	2.67▲	2.98▲	2.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting San Miguelito 1–4–1 UMECIT

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-1 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito
14/04/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-2 HT 1-0	UMECIT
07/02/26 Panama LPF	UMECIT	2-2 HT 1-1	Sporting San Miguelito
14/10/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	3-3 HT 1-2	Sporting San Miguelito
22/07/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT
31/03/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	14	10	3	1	35	16	33
2	CD Arabe Unido	14	6	5	3	18	14	23
3	Tauro FC	14	6	2	6	21	15	20
4	UMECIT	13	5	5	3	13	11	20
5	Sporting San Miguelito	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
6	Alianza FC Panama	14	3	5	6	13	21	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting San Miguelito	UMECIT
Alianza FC Panama	3-1 W	2-1 W
Union Cocle	3-1 W	1-0 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	1-1 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-4 L	2-0 W
San Francisco FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
CD Universitario	1-1 D	1-2 L
Herrera FC	3-1 W	3-1 W
CD Arabe Unido	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting San Miguelito

WLWDLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	2-1	3-1	0	4	W
20/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
06/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	6	W
28/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
21/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
15/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
06/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
16/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

UMECIT

LLDWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
19/10	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
03/10	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
27/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-2	8	7	L
22/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	5	W
08/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
24/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting San Miguelito vs UMECIT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting San Miguelito win (37%). Probabilities: Sporting San Miguelito 37%, draw 29%, UMECIT 34%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting San Miguelito vs UMECIT?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Sporting San Miguelito 1.36 · UMECIT 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting San Miguelito vs UMECIT?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.