Football · Panama LPF · 02/11, 00:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs San Francisco FC

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · San Francisco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.27

San Francisco FC1.35

1X2

34% 28% 38%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw San Francisco FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLDWW

San Francisco FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWLWW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–3–2 San Francisco FC (6 last)

San Francisco FC2-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC0-3CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC3-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera
San Francisco FC1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1517 · San Francisco FC 1542

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	San Francisco FC
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Francisco FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	San Francisco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.83 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.24
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +14’	2.63	3.20	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +67’	2.93	3.19	2.33
05:07 +11’	2.82▼	3.19	2.40▲
07:16 +10’	2.80▼	3.19	2.42▲
22:38 +24’	2.83▲	3.24▲	2.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–3–2 San Francisco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	2-1 HT 1-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
12/04/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	San Francisco FC
07/02/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	0-3 HT 0-3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
31/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	San Francisco FC
02/08/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	3-2 HT 1-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
26/04/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	13	8	2	3	26	15	26
2	Veraguas CD	14	6	6	2	25	20	24
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	13	4	5	4	19	18	17
4	CD Universitario	14	3	5	6	12	14	14
5	Herrera FC	14	3	2	9	15	33	11
6	Union Cocle	14	1	2	11	10	29	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	San Francisco FC
CD Universitario	1-0 W	1-0 W
Veraguas CD	3-1 W	3-3 D
CD Arabe Unido	1-1 D	1-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sporting San Miguelito	4-3 W	2-0 W
Plaza Amador	2-2 D	4-1 W
UMECIT	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tauro FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

LWLLDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
18/10	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	3-0	3-1	3	10	W
05/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
29/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

San Francisco FC

WDWDWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/10	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
27/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
19/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
15/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
07/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
23/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
15/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs San Francisco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Francisco FC win (38%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 34%, draw 28%, San Francisco FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs San Francisco FC?

The model expects 2.62 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.27 · San Francisco FC 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs San Francisco FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.