Football · Colombia Primera A · 09/11, 02:15

Prediction: Alianza vs Llaneros

Team pages: Alianza · Llaneros

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Alianza1.44

Llaneros1.07

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Alianza Draw Llaneros

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWWLL

Llaneros 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Alianza 2–1–0 Llaneros (3 last)

Llaneros0-0Alianza
Alianza3-1Llaneros
Llaneros0-1Alianza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza 1510 · Llaneros 1443

	Alianza	Draw	Llaneros
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza (rating 1510 vs 1443).
H2H favours Alianza: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza	Llaneros
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.19 ★
2	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +13’	2.10	3.10	3.40
03:32 +3’	2.10	3.10	3.75▲
14:50 +7’	2.15▲	3.10	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +14’	2.18	3.14	3.53
02:18 +8’	2.19▲	3.17▲	3.58▲
14:33 +25’	2.20▲	3.19▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 2–1–0 Llaneros

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza
27/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	3-1 HT 2-0	Llaneros
12/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	18	12	3	3	37	17	39
2	America de Cali	18	10	6	2	31	12	36
3	Deportivo Cali	18	9	7	2	26	10	34
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	17	7	8	2	26	17	29
5	Independiente Medellin	18	9	2	7	28	25	29
6	Independiente Santa Fe	17	8	4	5	23	18	28
7	Millonarios	17	6	9	2	24	14	27
8	Once Caldas	18	7	6	5	22	18	27
9	Aguilas Doradas	18	6	7	5	22	21	25
10	Cucuta Deportivo	17	7	3	7	19	24	24
11	Deportes Tolima	17	6	5	6	21	20	23
12	Internacional de Bogota	18	4	8	6	22	25	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Boyaca Chico	18	5	4	9	15	29	19
15	Alianza	17	5	3	9	17	29	18
16	Deportivo Pereira	18	3	8	7	16	26	17
17	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
18	Deportivo Pasto	17	4	3	10	13	24	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	17	3	4	10	17	31	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	18	1	9	8	17	28	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza	Llaneros
Once Caldas	0-1 L	0-1 L
Internacional de Bogota	1-0 W	2-3 L
Deportivo Cali	1-3 L	0-3 L
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-1 W	0-1 L
Independiente Santa Fe	1-4 L	1-0 W
Junior	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza

WWLWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
29/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
25/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
20/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	6	11	D
03/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	5	9	L
27/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
16/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W

Llaneros

LLWLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
27/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	8	10	L
22/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
19/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
10/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
05/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
27/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
21/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
08/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Llaneros?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza win (44%). Probabilities: Alianza 44%, draw 30%, Llaneros 26%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Llaneros?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Alianza 1.44 · Llaneros 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza vs Llaneros?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.