Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/11, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza CEIF

Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Fortaleza CEIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Atletico Bucaramanga2.07

Fortaleza CEIF0.83

1X2

65% 22% 13%

Atletico Bucaramanga Draw Fortaleza CEIF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Bucaramanga 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLLWDW

Fortaleza CEIF 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Atletico Bucaramanga 3–3 Fortaleza CEIF (6 last)

Fortaleza CEIF2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Fortaleza CEIF0-2Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga1-2Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga4-0Fortaleza CEIF
Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Fortaleza CEIF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1534 · Fortaleza CEIF 1443

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Draw	Fortaleza CEIF
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	65%	23%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Bucaramanga (rating 1534 vs 1443).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Fortaleza CEIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.1	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.10

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.44▲	Pinn 1.58 ★
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	9.50 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +39’	1.36	4.20	9.50
19:55 +7’	1.44▲	4.10▼	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:03	1.58	3.74	5.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 3–0–3 Fortaleza CEIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
30/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
27/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-2 HT 0-1	Fortaleza CEIF
27/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
14/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	4-0 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
10/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	18	12	3	3	37	17	39
2	America de Cali	18	10	6	2	31	12	36
3	Deportivo Cali	18	9	7	2	26	10	34
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	18	8	8	2	30	17	32
5	Independiente Santa Fe	18	9	4	5	28	18	31
6	Independiente Medellin	18	9	2	7	28	25	29
7	Millonarios	18	6	9	3	25	16	27
8	Once Caldas	18	7	6	5	22	18	27
9	Deportes Tolima	18	7	5	6	23	21	26
10	Aguilas Doradas	18	6	7	5	22	21	25
11	Cucuta Deportivo	17	7	3	7	19	24	24
12	Llaneros	18	7	2	9	21	24	23
13	Internacional de Bogota	18	4	8	6	22	25	20
14	Boyaca Chico	18	5	4	9	15	29	19
15	Alianza	18	5	3	10	18	31	18
16	Deportivo Pereira	18	3	8	7	16	26	17
17	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
18	Deportivo Pasto	18	4	3	11	13	29	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	18	3	4	11	17	35	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	18	1	9	8	17	28	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Bucaramanga	Fortaleza CEIF
Jaguares de Cordoba	4-0 W	2-2 D
Deportivo Pasto	2-1 W	0-0 D
America de Cali	1-1 D	1-2 L
Aguilas Doradas	1-1 D	0-1 L
Junior	3-1 W	1-4 L
Internacional de Bogota	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Bucaramanga

WWWDDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
03/11	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
31/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
24/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
18/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
14/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	3-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
20/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	5	W

Fortaleza CEIF

DLDDDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	7	5	L
02/11	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
30/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
25/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
09/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	8	11	D
20/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
12/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza CEIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (65%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 65%, draw 22%, Fortaleza CEIF 13%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 2.07 · Fortaleza CEIF 0.83), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.