Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/11, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Once Caldas

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Once Caldas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.58

Once Caldas0.71

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Once Caldas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWDW

Once Caldas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–1–1 Once Caldas (6 last)

Once Caldas1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Once Caldas
Once Caldas0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Once Caldas1-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
Once Caldas1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin0-0Once Caldas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1551 · Once Caldas 1560

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Draw	Once Caldas
Our model	57%	27%	16%
Market	59%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Once Caldas
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.6	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.90

25.25

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.99

Under 2.751.81

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.69 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:05 +3’	1.55	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:03 +4’	1.69	3.76	4.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–1–1 Once Caldas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
23/10/25 Colombia Cup	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-0 HT 1-0	Once Caldas
10/10/25 Colombia Cup	Once Caldas	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
12/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-3 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
20/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
02/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-0 HT 0-0	Once Caldas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	18	12	3	3	37	17	39
2	America de Cali	18	10	6	2	31	12	36
3	Deportivo Cali	18	9	7	2	26	10	34
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	17	7	8	2	26	17	29
5	Independiente Medellin	18	9	2	7	28	25	29
6	Independiente Santa Fe	17	8	4	5	23	18	28
7	Millonarios	17	6	9	2	24	14	27
8	Once Caldas	18	7	6	5	22	18	27
9	Aguilas Doradas	18	6	7	5	22	21	25
10	Cucuta Deportivo	17	7	3	7	19	24	24
11	Deportes Tolima	17	6	5	6	21	20	23
12	Internacional de Bogota	18	4	8	6	22	25	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Boyaca Chico	18	5	4	9	15	29	19
15	Alianza	17	5	3	9	17	29	18
16	Deportivo Pereira	18	3	8	7	16	26	17
17	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
18	Deportivo Pasto	17	4	3	10	13	24	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	17	3	4	10	17	31	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	18	1	9	8	17	28	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira	4-3 W	1-1 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	1-1 D	1-3 L
Independiente Medellin	2-1 W	2-0 W
Deportivo Pasto	3-0 W	0-1 L
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	1-0 W
Millonarios	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

DWDWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	2-1	4-3	9	8	W
03/11	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
30/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
09/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	10	W
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

Once Caldas

WLLDWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
29/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
25/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	12	7	D
21/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
10/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
04/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
20/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
17/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Once Caldas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (58%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 58%, draw 25%, Once Caldas 17%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Once Caldas?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.58 · Once Caldas 0.71), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Once Caldas?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.