Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/11, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima

Team pages: Deportivo Cali · Deportes Tolima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Deportivo Cali1.27

Deportes Tolima0.94

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Deportivo Cali Draw Deportes Tolima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Cali 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWDWD

Deportes Tolima 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDDLLLWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Cali 0–3–3 Deportes Tolima (6 last)

Deportes Tolima1-1Deportivo Cali
Deportes Tolima2-1Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali1-1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima1-1Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali1-2Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali0-2Deportes Tolima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Cali 1574 · Deportes Tolima 1485

	Deportivo Cali	Draw	Deportes Tolima
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Cali (rating 1574 vs 1485).
H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Cali	Deportes Tolima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.7	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +23’	2.10	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cali 0–3–3 Deportes Tolima

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cali
25/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Cali
04/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportes Tolima
08/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cali
27/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	1-2 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
30/11/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	0-2 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	18	12	3	3	37	17	39
2	America de Cali	18	10	6	2	31	12	36
3	Deportivo Cali	18	9	7	2	26	10	34
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	18	8	8	2	30	17	32
5	Independiente Santa Fe	18	9	4	5	28	18	31
6	Independiente Medellin	18	9	2	7	28	25	29
7	Millonarios	18	6	9	3	25	16	27
8	Once Caldas	18	7	6	5	22	18	27
9	Deportes Tolima	18	7	5	6	23	21	26
10	Aguilas Doradas	18	6	7	5	22	21	25
11	Cucuta Deportivo	17	7	3	7	19	24	24
12	Llaneros	18	7	2	9	21	24	23
13	Internacional de Bogota	18	4	8	6	22	25	20
14	Boyaca Chico	18	5	4	9	15	29	19
15	Alianza	18	5	3	10	18	31	18
16	Deportivo Pereira	18	3	8	7	16	26	17
17	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
18	Deportivo Pasto	18	4	3	11	13	29	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	18	3	4	11	17	35	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	18	1	9	8	17	28	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Cali	Deportes Tolima
America de Cali	0-0 D	1-1 D
Boyaca Chico	2-0 W	0-0 D
Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 D	2-2 D
Deportivo Pereira	0-0 D	3-1 W
Aguilas Doradas	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cali (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Cali

WWWWDDWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
01/11	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
22/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
19/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
03/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	3	9	W
28/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	5	5	W

Deportes Tolima

LDDDDLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	3	9	W
03/11	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	3-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	10	9	L
18/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-3	8	6	L
09/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
28/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	11	D
21/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
17/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cali win (43%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cali 43%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 27%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Deportivo Cali 1.27 · Deportes Tolima 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.