Football · Colombia Primera A · 07/11, 02:00

Prediction: Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Fortaleza CEIF · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Fortaleza CEIF1.31

Independiente Medellin1.27

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Fortaleza CEIF Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza CEIF 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDLDLL

Independiente Medellin 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Fortaleza CEIF 0–2–4 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin1-0Fortaleza CEIF
Independiente Medellin1-0Fortaleza CEIF
Independiente Medellin3-1Fortaleza CEIF
Independiente Medellin2-1Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF0-0Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza CEIF0-0Independiente Medellin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1445 vs 1494).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza CEIF	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.92

Under 2.51.87

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.11 → 3.14▲	Pinn 3.14
X	3.79 → 3.83▲	Pinn 3.83
2	2.05 → 2.08▲	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:07	3.11	3.79	2.05
00:06 +2’	3.14▲	3.83▲	2.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza CEIF 0–2–4 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Colombia Cup	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
26/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF
18/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	3-1 HT 1-1	Fortaleza CEIF
04/09/25 Colombia Cup	Independiente Medellin	2-1 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
27/08/25 Colombia Cup	Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
27/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	17	9	6	2	26	10	33
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Independiente Medellin	17	8	2	7	25	25	26
8	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	17	5	3	9	17	29	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	17	4	4	9	13	28	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza CEIF	Independiente Medellin
America de Cali	1-2 L	2-1 W
Internacional de Bogota	1-2 L	1-3 L
Millonarios	1-1 D	2-2 D
Junior	1-4 L	0-2 L
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-2 D	2-1 W
Independiente Santa Fe	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortaleza CEIF

DDLDDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
30/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
25/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
09/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	8	11	D
20/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
12/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
06/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	3	4	D

Independiente Medellin

DWLDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	11	6	W
29/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-3	11	6	L
26/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
18/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
12/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
30/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza CEIF win (36%). Probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 36%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 35%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Fortaleza CEIF 1.31 · Independiente Medellin 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.