Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/11, 20:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Internacional de Bogota

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Internacional de Bogota

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Boyaca Chico1.32

Internacional de Bogota1.27

1X2

36% 29% 34%

Boyaca Chico Draw Internacional de Bogota

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Internacional de Bogota 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 0–1 Internacional de Bogota (1 last)

Internacional de Bogota4-0Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1441 · Internacional de Bogota 1517

	Boyaca Chico	Draw	Internacional de Bogota
Our model	37%	29%	35%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional de Bogota (rating 1441 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Internacional de Bogota
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.32
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.95 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +3’	2.55	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +13’	2.39	3.32	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 0–0–1 Internacional de Bogota

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Internacional de Bogota	4-0 HT 3-0	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	17	9	6	2	26	10	33
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Independiente Medellin	17	8	2	7	25	25	26
8	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	17	5	3	9	17	29	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	17	4	4	9	13	28	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Internacional de Bogota
Junior	1-1 D	2-2 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	1-0 W	0-2 L
Deportivo Pereira	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-4 L	2-3 L
Alianza	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional de Bogota (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
28/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
24/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
20/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
17/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
12/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
03/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	0	1	W
19/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	9	4	L

Internacional de Bogota

DWLLDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
25/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
21/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
04/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
20/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
17/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
12/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
06/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Internacional de Bogota?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boyaca Chico win (36%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 36%, draw 29%, Internacional de Bogota 34%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Internacional de Bogota?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.32 · Internacional de Bogota 1.27), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Internacional de Bogota?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.