Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 30/10, 21:15

Prediction: Casa Pia vs Sporting

Team pages: Casa Pia · Sporting

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Casa Pia0.71

Sporting2.34

1X2

9% 18% 73%

Casa Pia Draw Sporting

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Casa Pia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLWLW

Sporting 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Casa Pia 0–6 Sporting (6 last)

Sporting3-0Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-2Sporting
Casa Pia1-3Sporting
Sporting2-0Casa Pia
Sporting8-0Casa Pia
Casa Pia1-2Sporting

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casa Pia 1463 · Sporting 1578

	Casa Pia	Draw	Sporting
Our model	9%	18%	73%
Market	9%	17%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1463 vs 1578).
H2H favours Sporting: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casa Pia	Sporting
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	3.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.50

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 10.00▼	Pinn 10.08
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.82 ★
2	1.22 → 1.27▲	Pinn 1.28

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +4’	11.00	6.00	1.22
21:09 +3’	10.00▼	5.50▼	1.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +373’	10.58	5.99	1.26
16:42 +16’	10.08▼	5.82▼	1.28▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casa Pia 0–0–6 Sporting

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	3-0 HT 2-0	Casa Pia
08/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-2 HT 0-1	Sporting
09/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-3 HT 1-2	Sporting
05/10/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-0 HT 1-0	Casa Pia
29/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	8-0 HT 5-0	Casa Pia
18/08/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	21	4	27
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	9	5	3	1	21	11	18
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	13	6	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12	7	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	13	11	17
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
9	Braga	9	3	2	4	9	11	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14	11	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	14	17	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	9	19	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	5	17	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	8	21	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	5	15	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casa Pia	Sporting
Estrela	2-0 W	2-2 D
Guimaraes	0-0 D	3-2 W
Gil Vicente	0-2 L	3-0 W
Rio Ave	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casa Pia

DLLLLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/10	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
20/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
06/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D

Sporting

WDWWWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	11	6	L
09/10	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
19/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-2	4	9	D
13/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
28/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	4-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
14/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-2	5	8	W
08/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casa Pia vs Sporting?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting win (73%). Probabilities: Casa Pia 9%, draw 18%, Sporting 73%.

How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Sporting?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Casa Pia 0.71 · Sporting 2.34), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sporting?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.