Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/11, 21:30

Prediction: Estrela vs Benfica

Team pages: Estrela · Benfica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Estrela0.99

Benfica2.99

1X2

8% 15% 77%

Estrela Draw Benfica

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

0-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDLLLL

Benfica 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Estrela 0–6 Benfica (6 last)

Benfica4-0Estrela
Estrela0-1Benfica
Estrela2-3Benfica
Benfica7-0Estrela
Benfica1-0Estrela
Estrela1-4Benfica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela 1468 · Benfica 1662

	Estrela	Draw	Benfica
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	8%	15%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1468 vs 1662).
H2H favours Benfica: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrela	Benfica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	4.4 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.25

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.82

2 (-2)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.54 ★
2	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +4’	12.00	6.25	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:44 +3’	10.33	6.65	1.22
22:32 +2’	10.28▼	6.54▼	1.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 0–0–6 Benfica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	4-0 HT 1-0	Estrela
16/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-1 HT 0-0	Benfica
02/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-3 HT 1-3	Benfica
23/11/24 Portugal Cup	Benfica	7-0 HT 3-0	Estrela
24/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	1-0 HT 1-0	Estrela
29/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-4 HT 1-2	Benfica

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
10	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	14	14	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrela	Benfica
Moreirense	1-2 L	4-0 W
Casa Pia	0-2 L	7-0 W
Academico Viseu	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Benfica (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela

DDWDWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
24/10	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
11/10	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	5	5	D
10/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D

Benfica

WDWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
11/10	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	11	7	W
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
13/09	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-1	14	5	W
09/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	7	6	W
05/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
31/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	9	1	W
17/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	7-0	3	3	W
09/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	10	6	D
16/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Benfica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Benfica win (77%). Probabilities: Estrela 8%, draw 15%, Benfica 77%.

How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Benfica?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Estrela 0.99 · Benfica 2.99), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.