Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/11, 19:00

Prediction: Guimaraes vs FC Porto

Team pages: Guimaraes · FC Porto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Guimaraes0.71

FC Porto1.58

1X2

17% 25% 58%

Guimaraes Draw FC Porto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guimaraes 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLDLW

FC Porto 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Guimaraes 1–1–4 FC Porto (6 last)

Guimaraes0-1FC Porto
FC Porto1-3Guimaraes
FC Porto3-0Guimaraes
FC Porto1-1Guimaraes
Guimaraes0-3FC Porto
FC Porto3-1Guimaraes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guimaraes 1506 · FC Porto 1599

	Guimaraes	Draw	FC Porto
Our model	16%	27%	57%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1506 vs 1599).
H2H favours FC Porto: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guimaraes	FC Porto
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	4.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.20

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.20 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.10
2	1.57 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.67 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +3’	5.20	4.10	1.57
07:19 +3’	4.50▼	3.90▼	1.67▲
10:16 +4’	5.00▲	4.00▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +17’	4.72	3.91	1.68
22:31 +1’	4.80▲	4.08▲	1.67▼
09:11 +7’	4.82▲	4.10▲	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guimaraes 1–1–4 FC Porto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Porto
04/12/25 Portugal League Cup	FC Porto	1-3 HT 1-1	Guimaraes
11/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-0 HT 2-0	Guimaraes
24/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	1-1 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
21/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	0-3 HT 0-0	FC Porto
17/04/24 Portugal Cup	FC Porto	3-1 HT 2-1	Guimaraes

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	27	8	25
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	10	4	3	3	8	7	15
8	Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	14	14	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Guimaraes	10	2	3	5	10	10	9
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guimaraes	FC Porto
Maritimo	5-0 W	2-1 W
Benfica	0-2 L	3-1 W
Moreirense	1-1 D	2-1 W
Academico Viseu	1-2 L	3-0 W
Casa Pia	0-0 D	4-1 W
Arouca	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guimaraes

LLLWLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	5-0	6	7	W
11/10	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
20/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
12/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
06/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	17	4	D
31/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	2-3	1	8	L
08/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L

FC Porto

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	8	1	W
24/10	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
10/10	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
20/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
12/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	4-1	10	5	W
04/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
29/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-0	1	0	W
23/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
15/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Porto win (58%). Probabilities: Guimaraes 17%, draw 25%, FC Porto 58%.

How many goals are expected in Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Guimaraes 0.71 · FC Porto 1.58), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.