Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/11, 21:30
Prediction: Rio Ave vs Braga
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Rio Ave0.85
Braga1.96
1X2
Rio Ave
Draw
Braga
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Ave
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Braga
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rio Ave
1–2–3
Braga
(6 last)
- Braga3-0Rio Ave
- Rio Ave2-2Braga
- Rio Ave2-1Braga
- Braga4-0Rio Ave
- Rio Ave0-0Braga
- Braga2-1Rio Ave
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Ave 1441 · Braga 1510
| Rio Ave | Draw | Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 14% | 23% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1441 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Braga: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rio Ave | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.3 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Ave 1–2–3 Braga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Rio Ave |
| 31/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Rio Ave | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Braga |
| 02/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Rio Ave | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Braga |
| 29/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Rio Ave |
| 09/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Rio Ave | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Braga |
| 07/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Rio Ave |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 8 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 8 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 0-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Nacional | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Alverca | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Estrela | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Santa Clara | 0-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Sporting | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Estoril | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gil Vicente | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Braga (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Ave
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/09 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 28/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 09/08 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/10 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/10 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 14/09 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/09 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Ave vs Braga?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (62%). Probabilities: Rio Ave 14%, draw 23%, Braga 62%.
How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Braga?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Rio Ave 0.85 · Braga 1.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Braga?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.