Football · Rwanda National League · 28/10, 17:30

Prediction: Rayon Sports FC vs Musanze FC

Team pages: Rayon Sports FC · Musanze FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.79Total

Rayon Sports FC1.16

Musanze FC0.62

1X2

49% 32% 20%

Rayon Sports FC Draw Musanze FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayon Sports FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDWDDL

Musanze FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Rayon Sports FC 2–2–2 Musanze FC (6 last)

Musanze FC1-1Rayon Sports FC
Rayon Sports FC2-0Musanze FC
Rayon Sports FC2-2Musanze FC
Musanze FC0-1Rayon Sports FC
Rayon Sports FC0-1Musanze FC
Musanze FC1-0Rayon Sports FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayon Sports FC 1524 · Musanze FC 1477

	Rayon Sports FC	Draw	Musanze FC
Our model	48%	34%	19%
Market	50%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rayon Sports FC (rating 1524 vs 1477).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayon Sports FC	Musanze FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 5.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +5’	1.80	3.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayon Sports FC 2–2–2 Musanze FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Rayon Sports FC
05/12/25 Rwanda National League	Rayon Sports FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Musanze FC
09/02/25 Rwanda National League	Rayon Sports FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Musanze FC
06/11/24 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Rayon Sports FC
23/02/24 Rwanda National League	Rayon Sports FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Musanze FC
15/10/23 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Rayon Sports FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
2	Mukura	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
3	Gicumbi FC	5	3	0	2	5	4	9
4	Marines FC	5	2	2	1	10	6	8
5	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
6	Sunrise FC	6	1	4	1	4	7	7
7	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
8	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Musanze FC	4	2	0	2	3	2	6
10	Gasogi Utd	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
11	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
12	Police FC	5	1	1	3	2	5	4
13	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
14	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
15	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
16	Etoile de L'Est	5	0	3	2	3	6	3
17	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayon Sports FC	Musanze FC
SC Kiyovu	1-1 D	1-0 W
Marines FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rutsiro FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayon Sports FC

DWDLWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	6	11	L
17/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
26/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
15/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
09/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
06/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
02/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
19/04	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Musanze FC

DDDWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
11/10	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
15/09	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
06/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
02/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayon Sports FC vs Musanze FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayon Sports FC win (49%). Probabilities: Rayon Sports FC 49%, draw 32%, Musanze FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Rayon Sports FC vs Musanze FC?

The model expects 1.79 goals (Rayon Sports FC 1.16 · Musanze FC 0.62), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayon Sports FC vs Musanze FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.