Football · Rwanda National League · 03/11, 18:00

Prediction: APR FC vs Gasogi Utd

Team pages: APR FC · Gasogi Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

APR FC1.85

Gasogi Utd0.71

1X2

64% 22% 13%

APR FC Draw Gasogi Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

APR FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Gasogi Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

APR FC 3–2–1 Gasogi Utd (6 last)

APR FC4-0Gasogi Utd
Gasogi Utd1-0APR FC
Gasogi Utd0-3APR FC
APR FC2-0Gasogi Utd
Gasogi Utd0-0APR FC
APR FC0-0Gasogi Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APR FC 1550 · Gasogi Utd 1422

	APR FC	Draw	Gasogi Utd
Our model	64%	24%	13%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APR FC (rating 1550 vs 1422).
H2H favours APR FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APR FC	Gasogi Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.38▼	Bet365 1.38
X	3.90 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	7.00 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +1’	1.40	3.90	7.00
06:59 +4’	1.44▲	3.90	6.25▼
13:59 +5’	1.38▼	4.20▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · APR FC 3–2–1 Gasogi Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Rwanda Cup	APR FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Gasogi Utd
11/03/26 Rwanda Cup	Gasogi Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	APR FC
04/02/26 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	APR FC
20/12/25 Rwanda National League	APR FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Gasogi Utd
14/03/25 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	APR FC
05/03/25 Rwanda Cup	APR FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gasogi Utd

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APR FC	Gasogi Utd
Marines FC	4-2 W	2-2 D
Al Hilal Omdurman	0-4 L	0-2 L
Mukura	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: APR FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APR FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/09	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-2	4-2	6	3	W
31/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
27/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
17/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	2-0	3-0	4	0	W
10/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
02/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	8	2	L

Gasogi Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
25/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
21/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
18/10	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
14/10	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
28/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-2	2-3	1	2	L
13/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APR FC vs Gasogi Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APR FC win (64%). Probabilities: APR FC 64%, draw 22%, Gasogi Utd 13%.

How many goals are expected in APR FC vs Gasogi Utd?

The model expects 2.56 goals (APR FC 1.85 · Gasogi Utd 0.71), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in APR FC vs Gasogi Utd?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.