Football · Rwanda National League · 05/11, 14:00

Prediction: Marines FC vs Police FC

Team pages: Marines FC · Police FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Marines FC1.19

Police FC0.84

1X2

43% 32% 25%

Marines FC Draw Police FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Marines FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWDWL

Police FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Marines FC 1–5 Police FC (6 last)

Police FC2-0Marines FC
Marines FC1-2Police FC
Police FC4-0Marines FC
Marines FC0-1Police FC
Marines FC2-1Police FC
Police FC2-1Marines FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marines FC 1517 · Police FC 1485

	Marines FC	Draw	Police FC
Our model	43%	33%	25%
Market	44%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Police FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marines FC	Police FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +5’	2.05	2.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marines FC 1–0–5 Police FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Rwanda National League	Police FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Marines FC
26/10/25 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Police FC
16/02/25 Rwanda National League	Police FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Marines FC
23/11/24 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Police FC
20/04/24 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Police FC
02/12/23 Rwanda National League	Police FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Marines FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marines FC	Police FC
Al Hilal Omdurman	3-0 W	1-1 D
Gasogi Utd	2-2 D	1-0 W
SC Kiyovu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Musanze FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Marines FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marines FC

LDWWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
28/10	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
25/10	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
17/10	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-0	4-0	5	6	W
10/10	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
16/09	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-4	5	3	L
06/09	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
24/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-1	2-3	2	0	L

Police FC

DDWLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
28/10	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
25/10	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
16/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
11/10	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/09	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
07/09	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
28/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
24/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marines FC vs Police FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marines FC win (43%). Probabilities: Marines FC 43%, draw 32%, Police FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Marines FC vs Police FC?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Marines FC 1.19 · Police FC 0.84), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marines FC vs Police FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.