Football · Rwanda National League · 04/11, 14:00

Prediction: Bugesera vs Amagaju

Team pages: Bugesera · Amagaju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Bugesera1.17

Amagaju0.86

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Bugesera Draw Amagaju

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Bugesera 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLWWL

Amagaju 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Bugesera 2–4–0 Amagaju (6 last)

Amagaju2-2Bugesera
Bugesera0-0Amagaju
Bugesera2-1Amagaju
Amagaju0-0Bugesera
Amagaju0-1Bugesera
Bugesera0-0Amagaju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bugesera 1489 · Amagaju 1449

	Bugesera	Draw	Amagaju
Our model	42%	33%	25%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bugesera (rating 1489 vs 1449).
H2H favours Bugesera: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bugesera	Amagaju
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.1	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +8’	2.10	2.90	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bugesera 2–4–0 Amagaju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Rwanda Cup	Amagaju	2-2 HT 0-2	Bugesera
01/03/26 Rwanda National League	Bugesera	0-0 HT 0-0	Amagaju
18/02/26 Rwanda Cup	Bugesera	2-1 HT 0-0	Amagaju
20/09/25 Rwanda National League	Amagaju	0-0 HT 0-0	Bugesera
01/03/25 Rwanda National League	Amagaju	0-1 HT 0-1	Bugesera
18/02/25 Rwanda Cup	Bugesera	0-0 HT 0-0	Amagaju

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bugesera	Amagaju
Mukura	2-2 D	1-2 L
Gicumbi FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
AS Muhanga	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bugesera (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bugesera

LLLDLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
18/10	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
10/10	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
30/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
26/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
16/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
06/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-3	0-4	5	2	L
03/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Amagaju

WLDWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/10	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	4-0	8	0	W
11/10	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
18/09	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
12/09	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
30/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-2	0-2	5	0	L
17/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bugesera vs Amagaju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bugesera win (42%). Probabilities: Bugesera 42%, draw 32%, Amagaju 26%.

How many goals are expected in Bugesera vs Amagaju?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Bugesera 1.17 · Amagaju 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Bugesera vs Amagaju?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.