Football · Rwanda National League · 04/11, 14:00

Prediction: Gorilla FC vs Gicumbi FC

Team pages: Gorilla FC · Gicumbi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Gorilla FC1.21

Gicumbi FC0.9

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Gorilla FC Draw Gicumbi FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gorilla FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWDDWD

Gicumbi FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Gorilla FC 1–4–1 Gicumbi FC (6 last)

Gicumbi FC0-1Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC0-0Gicumbi FC
Gicumbi FC1-1Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC1-1Gicumbi FC
Gicumbi FC1-1Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC0-1Gicumbi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gorilla FC 1543 · Gicumbi FC 1499

	Gorilla FC	Draw	Gicumbi FC
Our model	42%	32%	26%
Market	42%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gorilla FC (rating 1543 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gorilla FC	Gicumbi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.1	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:47 +16’	2.10	2.80	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gorilla FC 1–4–1 Gicumbi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Rwanda National League	Gicumbi FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Gorilla FC
17/10/25 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gicumbi FC
31/03/22 Rwanda Cup	Gicumbi FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Gorilla FC
17/03/22 Rwanda Cup	Gorilla FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Gicumbi FC
05/03/22 Rwanda National League	Gicumbi FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Gorilla FC
26/11/21 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Gicumbi FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gorilla FC	Gicumbi FC
Etoile de L'Est	1-1 D	2-1 W
Amagaju	2-1 W	1-0 W
Police FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gicumbi FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gorilla FC

DLWWLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
24/10	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
21/10	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/10	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/10	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	3	11	W
12/09	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	11	6	L
05/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
31/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
15/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D

Gicumbi FC

WLWLWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
25/10	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
09/10	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
15/09	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
12/09	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
31/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
24/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
15/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
09/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gorilla FC vs Gicumbi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gorilla FC win (42%). Probabilities: Gorilla FC 42%, draw 32%, Gicumbi FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Gorilla FC vs Gicumbi FC?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Gorilla FC 1.21 · Gicumbi FC 0.9), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gorilla FC vs Gicumbi FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.