Football · Rwanda National League · 04/11, 14:00

Prediction: Etincelles vs SC Kiyovu

Team pages: Etincelles · SC Kiyovu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.93Total

Etincelles0.83

SC Kiyovu1.1

1X2

27% 32% 41%

Etincelles Draw SC Kiyovu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Etincelles 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWLLL

SC Kiyovu 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Etincelles 0–1–5 SC Kiyovu (6 last)

Etincelles0-0SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu4-1Etincelles
Etincelles0-2SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu2-1Etincelles
Etincelles2-3SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu2-1Etincelles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etincelles 1495 · SC Kiyovu 1550

	Etincelles	Draw	SC Kiyovu
Our model	26%	34%	40%
Market	28%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 1.93 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Kiyovu (rating 1495 vs 1550).
H2H favours SC Kiyovu: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etincelles	SC Kiyovu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.4	3.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X2.90

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +5’	3.25	2.90	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Etincelles 0–1–5 SC Kiyovu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Kiyovu
05/12/25 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	4-1 HT 2-0	Etincelles
06/04/25 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	0-2 HT 0-1	SC Kiyovu
22/11/24 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	2-1 HT 0-0	Etincelles
03/05/24 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	2-3 HT 1-1	SC Kiyovu
09/12/23 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	2-1 HT 2-1	Etincelles

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etincelles	SC Kiyovu
Marines FC	0-4 L	0-0 D
Bugesera	0-2 L	1-0 W
Musanze FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Gorilla FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etincelles

DWWWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
17/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
10/10	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
30/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
16/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
10/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	6	D

SC Kiyovu

WWDDDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
10/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
15/09	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
29/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
24/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etincelles vs SC Kiyovu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Kiyovu win (41%). Probabilities: Etincelles 27%, draw 32%, SC Kiyovu 41%.

How many goals are expected in Etincelles vs SC Kiyovu?

The model expects 1.93 goals (Etincelles 0.83 · SC Kiyovu 1.1), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Etincelles vs SC Kiyovu?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.