Football · England National League North · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Darlington 1883 vs Oxford City

Team pages: Darlington 1883 · Oxford City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Darlington 18831.46

Oxford City1.87

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Darlington 1883 Draw Oxford City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Darlington 1883 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLWLL

Oxford City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Darlington 1883 0–2–2 Oxford City (4 last)

Darlington 18831-3Oxford City
Oxford City5-1Darlington 1883
Darlington 18831-1Oxford City
Oxford City2-2Darlington 1883

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darlington 1883 1445 · Oxford City 1565

	Darlington 1883	Draw	Oxford City
Our model	29%	24%	46%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford City (rating 1445 vs 1565).
H2H favours Oxford City: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darlington 1883	Oxford City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darlington 1883 0–2–2 Oxford City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-3 HT 0-2	Oxford City
06/12/25 England National League North	Oxford City	5-1 HT 3-0	Darlington 1883
14/12/24 England National League North	Darlington 1883	1-1 HT 1-1	Oxford City
17/08/24 England National League North	Oxford City	2-2 HT 1-2	Darlington 1883

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	15	9	2	4	26	12	29
3	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	15	7	2	6	23	18	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
17	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
18	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
19	Scarborough Athletic	15	4	4	7	21	22	16
20	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darlington 1883	Oxford City
Morecambe	0-1 L	1-1 D
AFC Telford	1-2 L	0-1 L
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	3-0 W
Hebburn Town	1-1 D	3-0 W
Marine	1-2 L	1-1 D
Chorley	2-5 L	4-0 W
Radcliffe FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford City (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darlington 1883

WLLLDDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	2-3	4	2	L
27/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
24/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
17/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Oxford City

LWWLWDWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	South Shields England National League North	1-3	1-3	9	7	L
27/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	10	5	W
24/10	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
08/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darlington 1883 vs Oxford City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford City win (46%). Probabilities: Darlington 1883 29%, draw 25%, Oxford City 46%.

How many goals are expected in Darlington 1883 vs Oxford City?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Darlington 1883 1.46 · Oxford City 1.87), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Darlington 1883 vs Oxford City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.