Football · England National League North · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Spennymoor Town vs Chester

Team pages: Spennymoor Town · Chester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Spennymoor Town1.04

Chester1.79

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Spennymoor Town Draw Chester

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spennymoor Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLLWL

Chester 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Spennymoor Town 2–1–3 Chester (6 last)

Spennymoor Town4-1Chester
Chester2-1Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town1-2Chester
Chester1-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town3-0Chester
Chester1-1Spennymoor Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spennymoor Town 1440 · Chester 1493

	Spennymoor Town	Draw	Chester
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	21%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chester (rating 1440 vs 1493).
H2H favours Chester: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spennymoor Town	Chester
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.70

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +7’	4.20	3.70	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spennymoor Town 2–1–3 Chester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 England FA Cup Qualification	Spennymoor Town	4-1 HT 3-0	Chester
28/02/26 England National League North	Chester	2-1 HT 1-1	Spennymoor Town
20/01/26 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-2 HT 0-0	Chester
21/01/25 England National League North	Chester	1-0 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town
10/08/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	3-0 HT 1-0	Chester
24/02/24 England National League North	Chester	1-1 HT 1-1	Spennymoor Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	16	9	3	4	28	14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	27	12	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	25	20	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	20	20	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
18	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	20	29	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spennymoor Town	Chester
South Shields	0-1 L	1-3 L
Brackley	1-2 L	1-0 W
Hednesford	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spennymoor Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spennymoor Town

DLLDDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
31/10	Chorley England National League North	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
27/10	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
24/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
10/10	Brackley England National League North	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/09	Southport England National League North	0-2	2-2	3	2	D
12/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Chester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
31/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	10	L
27/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
24/10	South Shields England National League North	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
10/10	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
26/09	Worksop England National League North	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
12/09	Buxton England National League North	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spennymoor Town vs Chester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chester win (54%). Probabilities: Spennymoor Town 21%, draw 25%, Chester 54%.

How many goals are expected in Spennymoor Town vs Chester?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Spennymoor Town 1.04 · Chester 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs Chester?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.